Football · Argentina Championship Women · 10/08, 20:00

Prediction: CA Independiente Women vs Belgrano (W)

Team pages: CA Independiente Women · Belgrano (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

CA Independiente Women0.66

Belgrano (W)1.34

1X2

18% 29% 53%

CA Independiente Women Draw Belgrano (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente Women 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLLL

Belgrano (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWWWLW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente Women 0–1–5 Belgrano (W) (6 last)

Belgrano (W)1-0CA Independiente Women
CA Independiente Women1-4Belgrano (W)
Belgrano (W)4-0CA Independiente Women
Belgrano (W)3-1CA Independiente Women
CA Independiente Women0-0Belgrano (W)
Belgrano (W)2-1CA Independiente Women

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente Women 1399 · Belgrano (W) 1552

	CA Independiente Women	Draw	Belgrano (W)
Our model	17%	31%	52%
Market	19%	28%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belgrano (W) (rating 1399 vs 1552).
H2H favours Belgrano (W): 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente Women	Belgrano (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.1	0.8 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	1.8 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.25

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.50
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.83 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +7’	4.75	3.25	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:49 +1’	3.82	3.50	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente Women 0–1–5 Belgrano (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente Women
22/09/25 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	1-4 HT 1-0	Belgrano (W)
20/03/25 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	CA Independiente Women
01/09/24 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	3-1 HT 0-1	CA Independiente Women
14/04/24 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	0-0 HT 0-0	Belgrano (W)
13/11/23 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	CA Independiente Women

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis FC (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Union Santa Fe (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Boca Juniors (W)	3	2	0	1	5	3	6
4	Lanus (W)	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
5	San Lorenzo (W)	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	Social Atletico Television (W)	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Banfield (W)	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
9	Belgrano (W)	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	River Plate (W)	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	Huracan (W)	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
12	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Racing Club (W)	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Gimnasia LP (W)	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
15	CA Independiente Women	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente Women	Belgrano (W)
River Plate (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Banfield (W)	0-3 L	1-0 W
Gimnasia LP (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Newell's Old Boys (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Racing Club (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
San Lorenzo (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	1-3 L	0-0 D
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	1-6 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Belgrano (W) (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente Women

WLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	11	6	L
25/07	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
17/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
12/07	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
09/07	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-3	1-3	5	5	L
04/07	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	4	9	L
26/06	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
20/06	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-2	1-6	0	4	L
15/06	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
23/05	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Belgrano (W)

LDDDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
26/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
17/07	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
13/07	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
04/07	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
26/06	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
19/06	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
14/06	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
23/05	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente Women vs Belgrano (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Belgrano (W) win (53%). Probabilities: CA Independiente Women 18%, draw 29%, Belgrano (W) 53%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente Women vs Belgrano (W)?

The model expects 2.01 goals (CA Independiente Women 0.66 · Belgrano (W) 1.34), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente Women vs Belgrano (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.