Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 06/08, 23:00
Prediction: Estudiantes Merida vs Zamora
Team pages: Estudiantes Merida · Zamora
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Estudiantes Merida1.35
Zamora1.27
1X2
Estudiantes Merida
Draw
Zamora
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Estudiantes Merida
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Zamora
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estudiantes Merida
3–3
Zamora
(6 last)
- Zamora3-2Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida2-1Zamora
- Zamora2-1Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida2-1Zamora
- Zamora1-0Estudiantes Merida
- Estudiantes Merida3-1Zamora
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estudiantes Merida 1456 · Zamora 1534
| Estudiantes Merida | Draw | Zamora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zamora (rating 1456 vs 1534).
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estudiantes Merida | Zamora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.9 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 1 | 5.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes Merida 3–0–3 Zamora
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 13/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Zamora |
| 02/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 16/01/25 America Friendlies | Estudiantes Merida | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Zamora |
| 05/10/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Zamora | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Estudiantes Merida |
| 06/04/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Estudiantes Merida | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Zamora |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carabobo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | Zamora | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Deportivo Tachira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Trujillanos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Portuguesa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | UCV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Caracas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Estudiantes Merida | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Monagas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estudiantes Merida | Zamora |
|---|---|---|
| Caracas | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Tachira | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Metropolitanos FC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Carabobo | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Monagas | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Trujillanos | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Zamora (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estudiantes Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 14/05 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 27/04 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
Zamora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 24/06 | Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Cup |
4-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 20/04 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/03 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 16/03 | Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/03 | Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estudiantes Merida vs Zamora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes Merida win (38%). Probabilities: Estudiantes Merida 38%, draw 28%, Zamora 34%.
How many goals are expected in Estudiantes Merida vs Zamora?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Estudiantes Merida 1.35 · Zamora 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes Merida vs Zamora?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.