Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 07/08, 21:30

Prediction: Independiente FBC vs Resistencia FC

Team pages: Independiente FBC · Resistencia FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Independiente FBC1.48

Resistencia FC1.31

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Independiente FBC Draw Resistencia FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente FBC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDLWDD

Resistencia FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWLWW

Head-to-head

Independiente FBC 1–3–2 Resistencia FC (6 last)

Resistencia FC0-0Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC1-2Resistencia FC
Resistencia FC3-1Independiente FBC
Resistencia FC1-1Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC2-1Resistencia FC
Resistencia FC0-0Independiente FBC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente FBC 1509 · Resistencia FC 1538

	Independiente FBC	Draw	Resistencia FC
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Resistencia FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente FBC	Resistencia FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	6.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:33 +1’	2.25	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente FBC 1–3–2 Resistencia FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Resistencia FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente FBC
17/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	1-2 HT 1-1	Resistencia FC
10/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Resistencia FC	3-1 HT 3-0	Independiente FBC
03/09/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Resistencia FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente FBC
27/05/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	2-1 HT 1-0	Resistencia FC
26/10/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Resistencia FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente FBC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	17	11	4	2	24	12	37
2	General Caballero JLM	17	10	3	4	34	22	33
3	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	17	9	5	3	27	16	32
4	Deportivo Santaní	17	9	3	5	23	14	30
5	Sol de America	17	5	10	2	20	15	25
6	Resistencia FC	17	6	6	5	20	21	24
7	Club Atlético Tembetary	17	6	5	6	24	22	23
8	Guairena FC	17	6	5	6	18	20	23
9	Deportivo Capiata	17	5	8	4	23	21	23
10	Independiente FBC	17	5	7	5	25	24	22
11	Carapegua	17	6	4	7	20	29	22
12	Fernando de la Mora	17	5	5	7	19	25	20
13	Paraguari AC	17	4	4	9	17	23	16
14	Tacuary	17	2	9	6	21	27	15
15	Encarnacion FC	17	3	3	11	15	24	12
16	3 de Noviembre	17	0	7	10	13	28	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente FBC	Resistencia FC
Tacuary	2-2 D	3-1 W
Club Atlético Tembetary	2-2 D	1-0 W
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	1-2 L	0-2 L
Carapegua	2-0 W	1-1 D
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-2 L	2-3 L
Encarnacion FC	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Independiente FBC

WLWLDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
29/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/07	Atletico Naciones Unidas Paraguay Cup	5-0	10-0	6	0	W
18/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-3	1	7	L
13/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
08/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-2	2-2	6	6	D
30/06	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
06/06	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/05	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	1	8	L
23/05	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	3-2	3	5	W

Resistencia FC

DWLWLDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
28/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
18/07	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
14/07	Deportivo Santa Monica Paraguay Cup	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
10/07	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
05/07	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-3	2-3	6	9	L
30/06	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
04/06	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-3	5	6	L
30/05	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
24/05	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente FBC vs Resistencia FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente FBC win (40%). Probabilities: Independiente FBC 40%, draw 28%, Resistencia FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente FBC vs Resistencia FC?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Independiente FBC 1.48 · Resistencia FC 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente FBC vs Resistencia FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.