Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 16/08, 15:00

Prediction: Deportivo Santaní vs Carapegua

Team pages: Deportivo Santaní · Carapegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Deportivo Santaní1.83

Carapegua1.04

1X2

55% 25% 20%

Deportivo Santaní Draw Carapegua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Santaní 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWWWW

Carapegua 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWLWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Santaní 1–5 Carapegua (6 last)

Carapegua1-0Deportivo Santaní
Deportivo Santaní4-1Carapegua
Carapegua4-0Deportivo Santaní
Carapegua1-0Deportivo Santaní
Deportivo Santaní0-1Carapegua
Carapegua6-0Deportivo Santaní

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Santaní 1590 · Carapegua 1485

	Deportivo Santaní	Draw	Carapegua
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Santaní (rating 1590 vs 1485).
H2H favours Carapegua: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Santaní	Carapegua
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:24 +3’	1.65	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +1’	1.51	3.71	5.17
11:18 +1’	1.84▲	3.19▼	3.73▼
14:27 +6’	1.85▲	3.19	3.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Santaní 1–0–5 Carapegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Santaní
28/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Santaní	4-1 HT 2-1	Carapegua
25/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	4-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Santaní
28/07/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Santaní
23/04/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Santaní	0-1 HT 0-1	Carapegua
17/09/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	6-0 HT 5-0	Deportivo Santaní

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	19	12	4	3	28	16	40
2	General Caballero JLM	18	11	3	4	37	23	36
3	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	19	10	5	4	30	19	35
4	Deportivo Santaní	18	10	3	5	27	16	33
5	Sol de America	19	6	11	2	25	17	29
6	Independiente FBC	19	6	8	5	28	26	26
7	Resistencia FC	18	6	7	5	21	22	25
8	Carapegua	18	7	4	7	22	29	25
9	Guairena FC	19	6	5	8	19	23	23
10	Club Atlético Tembetary	18	6	5	7	25	25	23
11	Fernando de la Mora	19	6	5	8	21	28	23
12	Deportivo Capiata	18	5	8	5	24	25	23
13	Paraguari AC	19	5	5	9	19	24	20
14	Tacuary	18	3	9	6	22	27	18
15	Encarnacion FC	19	3	3	13	15	27	12
16	3 de Noviembre	18	0	7	11	14	30	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Santaní	Carapegua
Fernando de la Mora	2-3 L	2-0 W
3 de Noviembre	4-0 W	1-0 W
General Caballero JLM	2-1 W	1-2 L
Guairena FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Resistencia FC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Sol de America	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Santaní (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Santaní

DWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	3-0	4-2	3	6	W
02/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
29/07	Presidente Hayes Paraguay Cup	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
21/07	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-3	7	4	L
11/07	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	4-0	10	3	W
05/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
01/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
04/06	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
29/05	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Carapegua

DLLDDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/07	Club 4 de Mayo Paraguay Cup	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
10/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
05/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
27/06	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-5	1	2	L
06/06	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
31/05	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Santaní vs Carapegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Santaní win (55%). Probabilities: Deportivo Santaní 55%, draw 25%, Carapegua 20%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Santaní vs Carapegua?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Deportivo Santaní 1.83 · Carapegua 1.04), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Santaní vs Carapegua?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.