Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 05/08, 15:00

Prediction: FK Orol Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad

Team pages: FK Orol Nukus · Metallurg Bekabad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

FK Orol Nukus1.96

Metallurg Bekabad1.28

1X2

52% 25% 23%

FK Orol Nukus Draw Metallurg Bekabad

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Orol Nukus 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWWWWW

Metallurg Bekabad 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDLWLW

Head-to-head

FK Orol Nukus 0–1 Metallurg Bekabad (1 last)

Metallurg Bekabad2-1FK Orol Nukus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Orol Nukus 1575 · Metallurg Bekabad 1524

	FK Orol Nukus	Draw	Metallurg Bekabad
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Orol Nukus (rating 1575 vs 1524).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Orol Nukus	Metallurg Bekabad
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.9	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.8	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 04:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
03:03 +3’	1.73	3.60	3.80
19:37 +3’	1.73	3.40▼	4.10▲
01:18 +3’	1.75▲	3.40	3.90▼
03:38 +1’	1.75	3.30▼	3.90
04:44 +5’	1.73▼	3.40▲	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Orol Nukus 0–0–1 Metallurg Bekabad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Uzbekistan Cup	Metallurg Bekabad	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Orol Nukus

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	12	10	2	0	29	8	32
2	Kattaqorgon	13	8	3	2	17	7	27
3	Shurtan	12	8	2	2	18	12	26
4	Fardu Ferghana	13	6	4	3	21	21	22
5	Metallurg Bekabad	12	6	3	3	30	11	21
6	Gazalkent	13	6	3	4	24	16	21
7	FC Lochin	12	6	3	3	20	14	21
8	Olympic Mobiuz	12	5	3	4	25	14	18
9	Jayxun	12	4	2	6	14	18	14
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	12	4	1	7	14	23	13
11	Respublika FA	13	3	3	7	14	21	12
12	BuxDu	12	3	1	8	10	26	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	13	1	1	11	7	31	4
14	PFC Terdu	13	1	1	11	9	30	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Orol Nukus	Metallurg Bekabad
Gazalkent	2-0 W	2-3 L
Shurtan	3-1 W	0-1 L
Jayxun	4-1 W	0-2 L
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	3-0 W	5-0 W
AGMK	1-2 L	3-3 D
FC Lochin	2-2 D	5-0 W
Fardu Ferghana	2-0 W	7-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Orol Nukus

WDWLLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/07	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
08/06	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	4-1	12	1	W
03/06	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/05	AGMK Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/05	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
06/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	5-1	7	2	W
01/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W

Metallurg Bekabad

WDLDWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-0	2	3	W
23/07	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
08/06	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	7-0	5	5	W
04/06	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
31/05	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
16/05	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
10/05	AGMK Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	3-3	7	5	D
05/05	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
30/04	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	5-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Orol Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Orol Nukus win (52%). Probabilities: FK Orol Nukus 52%, draw 25%, Metallurg Bekabad 23%.

How many goals are expected in FK Orol Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model expects 3.23 goals (FK Orol Nukus 1.96 · Metallurg Bekabad 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Orol Nukus vs Metallurg Bekabad?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.