Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 17/10, 14:00

Prediction: FK Gabala vs Sabah

Team pages: FK Gabala · Sabah

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

FK Gabala0.68

Sabah1.95

1X2

12% 21% 67%

FK Gabala Draw Sabah

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Gabala 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDWLLL

Sabah 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

FK Gabala 1–2–3 Sabah (6 last)

Sabah7-1FK Gabala
FK Gabala2-2Sabah
FK Gabala0-1Sabah
Sabah0-0FK Gabala
Sabah1-0FK Gabala
FK Gabala2-0Sabah

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Gabala 1447 · Sabah 1599

	FK Gabala	Draw	Sabah
Our model	11%	22%	66%
Market	12%	21%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sabah (rating 1447 vs 1599).
H2H favours Sabah: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Gabala	Sabah
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.33

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.88

2 (-1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:04 +5’	7.50	4.33	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Gabala 1–2–3 Sabah

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Sabah	7-1 HT 4-0	FK Gabala
05/03/26 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Gabala	2-2 HT 0-1	Sabah
16/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	0-1 HT 0-0	Sabah
04/02/26 Azerbaijan Cup	Sabah	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Gabala
03/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Sabah	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Gabala
12/05/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	2-0 HT 2-0	Sabah

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	18	5	16
2	Sabah	6	5	1	0	14	1	16
3	FK Qarabag	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	7	4	2	1	7	4	14
5	Zira IK	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
6	FK Kapaz	6	3	1	2	6	7	10
7	Shamakhi FK	7	2	4	1	9	7	10
8	FK Sumqayit	6	1	2	3	8	9	5
9	Imisli	7	1	1	5	6	13	4
10	FK Gabala	7	1	1	5	3	11	4
11	Safa Baku	7	1	0	6	2	12	3
12	Araz FK	7	0	2	5	5	15	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Gabala	Sabah
Neftchi Baku	0-3 L	0-0 D
FK Kapaz	0-1 L	2-0 W
Imisli	2-1 W	3-1 W
Shamakhi FK	0-0 D	3-0 W
Safa Baku	0-1 L	3-0 W
PFK Turan Tovuz	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sabah (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Gabala

DWWLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
18/09	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
12/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
22/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	3-1	3-1	4	3	W
15/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
09/05	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D

Sabah

WLLWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
14/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
05/09	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	3-0	5-0	1	3	W
31/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
15/08	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/05	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
17/05	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
08/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
03/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Gabala vs Sabah?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sabah win (67%). Probabilities: FK Gabala 12%, draw 21%, Sabah 67%.

How many goals are expected in FK Gabala vs Sabah?

The model expects 2.63 goals (FK Gabala 0.68 · Sabah 1.95), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Gabala vs Sabah?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.