Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 25/10, 13:00

Prediction: Sabah vs FK Qarabag

Team pages: Sabah · FK Qarabag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Sabah1.6

FK Qarabag1.54

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Sabah Draw FK Qarabag

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sabah 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWDW

FK Qarabag 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Sabah 3–3–0 FK Qarabag (6 last)

Sabah2-1FK Qarabag
FK Qarabag0-1Sabah
FK Qarabag2-2Sabah
FK Qarabag3-3Sabah
Sabah2-1FK Qarabag
FK Qarabag2-2Sabah

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sabah 1589 · FK Qarabag 1564

	Sabah	Draw	FK Qarabag
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sabah: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sabah	FK Qarabag
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.5	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	3.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
01:10 +6’	2.25	3.40	2.63
06:09 +9’	2.35▲	3.40	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sabah 3–3–0 FK Qarabag

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Azerbaijan Cup	Sabah	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Qarabag
18/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	0-1 HT 0-1	Sabah
03/04/26 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Qarabag	2-2 HT 1-1	Sabah
01/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	3-3 HT 0-1	Sabah
18/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Sabah	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Qarabag
31/05/25 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Qarabag	2-2 HT 1-1	Sabah

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sabah	7	6	1	0	18	1	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	5	2	1	21	8	17
3	FK Qarabag	7	5	2	0	14	7	17
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	8	4	2	2	7	5	14
5	Shamakhi FK	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
6	Zira IK	8	3	3	2	9	10	12
7	FK Kapaz	7	3	2	2	7	8	11
8	FK Sumqayit	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
9	Imisli	8	2	1	5	7	13	7
10	FK Gabala	8	1	1	6	3	15	4
11	Safa Baku	8	1	0	7	4	15	3
12	Araz FK	8	0	2	6	6	17	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sabah	FK Qarabag
FK Gabala	4-0 W	1-1 D
Neftchi Baku	0-0 D	3-3 D
Imisli	3-1 W	2-0 W
Safa Baku	3-0 W	1-0 W
Zira IK	5-0 W	1-1 D
Araz FK	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sabah (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sabah

LLWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
09/10	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
14/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
05/09	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	3-0	5-0	1	3	W
31/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
15/08	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/05	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
17/05	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
08/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	10	4	L

FK Qarabag

DWWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-2	3-3	12	4	D
11/10	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
18/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
13/09	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-2	7	4	W
31/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
17/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
22/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	4-3	1	4	W
16/05	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	3-0	10	3	W
09/05	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sabah vs FK Qarabag?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sabah win (38%). Probabilities: Sabah 38%, draw 26%, FK Qarabag 36%.

How many goals are expected in Sabah vs FK Qarabag?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Sabah 1.6 · FK Qarabag 1.54), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sabah vs FK Qarabag?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.