Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 24/10, 17:00
Prediction: Neftchi Baku vs PFK Turan Tovuz
Team pages: Neftchi Baku · PFK Turan Tovuz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.4Total
Neftchi Baku1.49
PFK Turan Tovuz0.91
1X2
Neftchi Baku
Draw
PFK Turan Tovuz
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Neftchi Baku
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
PFK Turan Tovuz
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Neftchi Baku
1–3–2
PFK Turan Tovuz
(6 last)
- Neftchi Baku0-1PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz0-0Neftchi Baku
- Neftchi Baku0-1PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-2Neftchi Baku
- Neftchi Baku1-1PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-1Neftchi Baku
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Neftchi Baku 1588 · PFK Turan Tovuz 1500
| Neftchi Baku | Draw | PFK Turan Tovuz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Baku (rating 1588 vs 1500).
- H2H favours PFK Turan Tovuz: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Neftchi Baku | PFK Turan Tovuz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.9 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.1 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Baku 1–3–2 PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 0-1 HT 0-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 28/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Baku |
| 29/08/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 0-1 HT 0-1 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 10/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Neftchi Baku |
| 10/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 1-1 HT 0-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 21/12/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Neftchi Baku |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabah | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 19 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | FK Qarabag | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Shamakhi FK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 6 | Zira IK | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| 7 | FK Kapaz | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | FK Sumqayit | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 9 | Imisli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 7 |
| 10 | FK Gabala | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 4 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
| 12 | Araz FK | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 2 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Neftchi Baku | PFK Turan Tovuz |
|---|---|---|
| Sabah | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| FK Gabala | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Imisli | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Safa Baku | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Zira IK | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Araz FK | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| FK Sumqayit | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FK Kapaz | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Neftchi Baku (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Neftchi Baku
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 09/10 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 18/09 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
4-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/10 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/08 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Neftchi Baku vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Baku win (50%). Probabilities: Neftchi Baku 50%, draw 28%, PFK Turan Tovuz 22%.
How many goals are expected in Neftchi Baku vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Neftchi Baku 1.49 · PFK Turan Tovuz 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Neftchi Baku vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.