Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 23/10, 17:00

Prediction: Zira IK vs FK Sumqayit

Team pages: Zira IK · FK Sumqayit

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Zira IK1.65

FK Sumqayit0.95

1X2

52% 28% 20%

Zira IK Draw FK Sumqayit

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Zira IK 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDLDD

FK Sumqayit 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLDDWW

Head-to-head

Zira IK 5–1–0 FK Sumqayit (6 last)

Zira IK2-1FK Sumqayit
Zira IK2-0FK Sumqayit
FK Sumqayit2-3Zira IK
FK Sumqayit0-0Zira IK
Zira IK1-0FK Sumqayit
Zira IK3-1FK Sumqayit

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zira IK 1524 · FK Sumqayit 1450

	Zira IK	Draw	FK Sumqayit
Our model	53%	27%	21%
Market	52%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zira IK (rating 1524 vs 1450).
H2H favours Zira IK: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zira IK	FK Sumqayit
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.9	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:59 +7’	1.73	3.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zira IK 5–1–0 FK Sumqayit

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Sumqayit
03/03/26 Azerbaijan Cup	Zira IK	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Sumqayit
08/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	2-3 HT 1-2	Zira IK
04/02/26 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Sumqayit	0-0 HT 0-0	Zira IK
25/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Sumqayit
20/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	3-1 HT 2-0	FK Sumqayit

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sabah	7	6	1	0	18	1	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	5	2	1	21	8	17
3	FK Qarabag	7	5	2	0	14	7	17
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	8	4	2	2	7	5	14
5	Shamakhi FK	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
6	Zira IK	8	3	3	2	9	10	12
7	FK Kapaz	7	3	2	2	7	8	11
8	FK Sumqayit	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
9	Imisli	8	2	1	5	7	13	7
10	FK Gabala	8	1	1	6	3	15	4
11	Safa Baku	8	1	0	7	4	15	3
12	Araz FK	8	0	2	6	6	17	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zira IK	FK Sumqayit
FK Kapaz	1-1 D	1-1 D
Shamakhi FK	1-1 D	1-1 D
PFK Turan Tovuz	0-1 L	1-2 L
FK Qarabag	1-1 D	0-1 L
Neftchi Baku	1-0 W	1-3 L
Araz FK	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zira IK (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zira IK

WLWWWLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
10/10	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
19/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
13/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
30/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
22/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
16/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
23/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
17/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	11	3	W

FK Sumqayit

WLLLLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	6	W
10/10	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	3-1	4-1	2	5	W
20/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
06/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
31/08	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
16/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
22/05	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	3-4	6	4	L
17/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
09/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zira IK vs FK Sumqayit?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zira IK win (52%). Probabilities: Zira IK 52%, draw 28%, FK Sumqayit 20%.

How many goals are expected in Zira IK vs FK Sumqayit?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Zira IK 1.65 · FK Sumqayit 0.95), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zira IK vs FK Sumqayit?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.