Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 23/10, 13:00

Prediction: Araz FK vs FK Gabala

Team pages: Araz FK · FK Gabala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Araz FK1.39

FK Gabala1.25

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Araz FK Draw FK Gabala

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Araz FK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLDLLL

FK Gabala 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Araz FK 1–2–3 FK Gabala (6 last)

FK Gabala1-1Araz FK
FK Gabala2-1Araz FK
Araz FK2-1FK Gabala
FK Gabala2-0Araz FK
Araz FK1-1FK Gabala
FK Gabala2-0Araz FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Araz FK 1431 · FK Gabala 1460

	Araz FK	Draw	FK Gabala
Our model	39%	29%	33%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Gabala: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Araz FK	FK Gabala
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +5’	2.30	3.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Araz FK 1–2–3 FK Gabala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	1-1 HT 0-0	Araz FK
30/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	2-1 HT 1-1	Araz FK
30/08/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	2-1 HT 2-1	FK Gabala
19/05/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	2-0 HT 0-0	Araz FK
16/03/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Gabala
09/02/24 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Gabala	2-0 HT 2-0	Araz FK

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sabah	7	6	1	0	18	1	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	5	2	1	21	8	17
3	FK Qarabag	7	5	2	0	14	7	17
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	8	4	2	2	7	5	14
5	Shamakhi FK	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
6	Zira IK	8	3	3	2	9	10	12
7	FK Kapaz	7	3	2	2	7	8	11
8	FK Sumqayit	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
9	Imisli	8	2	1	5	7	13	7
10	FK Gabala	8	1	1	6	3	15	4
11	Safa Baku	8	1	0	7	4	15	3
12	Araz FK	8	0	2	6	6	17	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Araz FK	FK Gabala
FK Sumqayit	1-2 L	1-4 L
FK Kapaz	0-2 L	0-1 L
Shamakhi FK	1-2 L	0-0 D
PFK Turan Tovuz	2-2 D	0-1 L
Sabah	0-1 L	0-4 L
Neftchi Baku	0-5 L	0-3 L
Imisli	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Gabala (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Araz FK

WWDLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
09/10	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	8	L
13/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
06/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
31/08	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
23/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-4	0-5	5	4	L
15/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
15/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

FK Gabala

WWLLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-4	3	0	L
10/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
18/09	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
12/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
22/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	3-1	3-1	4	3	W
15/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Araz FK vs FK Gabala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Araz FK win (39%). Probabilities: Araz FK 39%, draw 28%, FK Gabala 33%.

How many goals are expected in Araz FK vs FK Gabala?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Araz FK 1.39 · FK Gabala 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Araz FK vs FK Gabala?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.