Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: FK Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku

Team pages: FK Qarabag · Neftchi Baku

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FK Qarabag1.71

Neftchi Baku1.22

1X2

47% 27% 26%

FK Qarabag Draw Neftchi Baku

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Qarabag 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDWW

Neftchi Baku 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWD

Head-to-head

FK Qarabag 5–1 Neftchi Baku (6 last)

Neftchi Baku2-1FK Qarabag
Neftchi Baku1-5FK Qarabag
FK Qarabag2-0Neftchi Baku
FK Qarabag3-0Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku0-1FK Qarabag
Neftchi Baku0-3FK Qarabag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Qarabag 1595 · Neftchi Baku 1581

	FK Qarabag	Draw	Neftchi Baku
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	47%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Qarabag: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Qarabag	Neftchi Baku
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	2.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.5	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.93
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.49 ★
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:06 +9’	1.91	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:11 +2’	1.97	3.46	3.38
01:22 +57’	1.95▼	3.47▲	3.44▲
02:44 +33’	1.93▼	3.49▲	3.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Qarabag 5–0–1 Neftchi Baku

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Qarabag
26/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	1-5 HT 1-3	FK Qarabag
09/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	2-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Baku
19/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	3-0 HT 3-0	Neftchi Baku
16/02/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Qarabag
01/12/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Qarabag

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	18	5	16
2	Sabah	6	5	1	0	14	1	16
3	FK Qarabag	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	7	4	2	1	7	4	14
5	Zira IK	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
6	FK Kapaz	6	3	1	2	6	7	10
7	Shamakhi FK	7	2	4	1	9	7	10
8	FK Sumqayit	6	1	2	3	8	9	5
9	Imisli	7	1	1	5	6	13	4
10	FK Gabala	7	1	1	5	3	11	4
11	Safa Baku	7	1	0	6	2	12	3
12	Araz FK	7	0	2	5	5	15	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Qarabag	Neftchi Baku
Imisli	2-0 W	3-2 W
Safa Baku	1-0 W	4-1 W
Zira IK	1-1 D	0-1 L
Araz FK	3-2 W	5-0 W
FK Sumqayit	1-0 W	3-1 W
Shamakhi FK	3-1 W	3-0 W
FK Gabala	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Baku (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Qarabag

WDWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
18/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
13/09	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-2	7	4	W
31/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
17/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
22/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	4-3	1	4	W
16/05	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	3-0	10	3	W
09/05	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
04/05	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	5	W

Neftchi Baku

WWWWWLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
18/09	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
11/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	2-2	3-2	7	1	W
05/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	4-1	6	2	W
30/08	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
23/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	4-0	5-0	4	4	W
16/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
23/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
10/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Qarabag win (47%). Probabilities: FK Qarabag 47%, draw 27%, Neftchi Baku 26%.

How many goals are expected in FK Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FK Qarabag 1.71 · Neftchi Baku 1.22), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.