Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 16/10, 17:00

Prediction: FK Sumqayit vs Araz FK

Team pages: FK Sumqayit · Araz FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

FK Sumqayit1.61

Araz FK1.34

1X2

42% 28% 30%

FK Sumqayit Draw Araz FK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Sumqayit 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLDDW

Araz FK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLLDLL

Head-to-head

FK Sumqayit 2–1–3 Araz FK (6 last)

FK Sumqayit2-1Araz FK
Araz FK1-0FK Sumqayit
FK Sumqayit3-2Araz FK
Araz FK2-0FK Sumqayit
FK Sumqayit0-0Araz FK
Araz FK1-0FK Sumqayit

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Sumqayit 1456 · Araz FK 1446

	FK Sumqayit	Draw	Araz FK
Our model	43%	27%	31%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Araz FK: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Sumqayit	Araz FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.27 ★
2	3.60 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:55 +9’	1.91	3.20	3.60
06:56 +8’	2.25▲	3.10▼	2.90▼
11:59 +7’	2.15▼	3.10	3.00▲
06:49 +13’	2.20▲	3.00▼	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:24 +39’	2.30	3.32	2.81
11:49 +17’	2.24▼	3.29▼	2.93▲
13:44 +23’	2.18▼	3.27▼	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Sumqayit 2–1–3 Araz FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	2-1 HT 1-0	Araz FK
15/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Sumqayit
02/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	3-2 HT 1-1	Araz FK
07/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Sumqayit
01/02/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Sumqayit	0-0 HT 0-0	Araz FK
10/11/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Sumqayit

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	7	5	1	1	18	5	16
2	Sabah	6	5	1	0	14	1	16
3	FK Qarabag	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	7	4	2	1	7	4	14
5	Zira IK	7	3	2	2	8	9	11
6	FK Kapaz	6	3	1	2	6	7	10
7	Shamakhi FK	7	2	4	1	9	7	10
8	FK Sumqayit	6	1	2	3	8	9	5
9	Imisli	7	1	1	5	6	13	4
10	FK Gabala	7	1	1	5	3	11	4
11	Safa Baku	7	1	0	6	2	12	3
12	Araz FK	7	0	2	5	5	15	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Sumqayit	Araz FK
FK Kapaz	1-1 D	0-2 L
Shamakhi FK	1-1 D	1-2 L
PFK Turan Tovuz	1-2 L	2-2 D
FK Qarabag	0-1 L	2-3 L
Neftchi Baku	1-3 L	0-5 L
Zira IK	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sumqayit (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Sumqayit

LWLLLLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	3-1	4-1	2	5	W
20/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
06/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
31/08	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
16/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
22/05	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	3-4	6	4	L
17/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
09/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
02/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L

Araz FK

LWWDLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	8	L
13/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
06/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
31/08	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
23/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-4	0-5	5	4	L
15/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
15/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
09/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Sumqayit vs Araz FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Sumqayit win (42%). Probabilities: FK Sumqayit 42%, draw 28%, Araz FK 30%.

How many goals are expected in FK Sumqayit vs Araz FK?

The model expects 2.95 goals (FK Sumqayit 1.61 · Araz FK 1.34), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Sumqayit vs Araz FK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.