Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Watford vs Crawley Town
Team pages: Crawley Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Watford2.41
Crawley Town0.65
1X2
Watford
Draw
Crawley Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Watford
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Crawley Town
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Watford 1429 · Crawley Town 1495
| Watford | Draw | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Market | 76% | 16% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crawley Town (rating 1429 vs 1495).
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Watford | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.2 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.7 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Watford
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07 | Fiorentina Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Hansa Rostock Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | Barnet UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Boreham Wood UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Coventry England Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/04 | West Brom England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 17 | 4 | D |
Crawley Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | York England EFL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 31/07 | Reading UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 28/07 | Oxford Utd UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Eastleigh UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Salford City England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/04 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 06/04 | Grimsby England League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Newport County England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Watford vs Crawley Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Watford win (76%). Probabilities: Watford 76%, draw 17%, Crawley Town 8%.
How many goals are expected in Watford vs Crawley Town?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Watford 2.41 · Crawley Town 0.65), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Crawley Town?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.