Football · England EFL Cup · 08/08, 18:30
Prediction: Colchester vs Southampton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Colchester0.91
Southampton2.32
1X2
Colchester
Draw
Southampton
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Colchester
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Southampton
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colchester 1490 · Southampton 1594
| Colchester | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 20% | 68% |
| Market | 14% | 16% | 70% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1490 vs 1594).
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colchester | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.5 | 2 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colchester
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Stevenage UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Charlton UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/07 | West Ham U21 Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Peterborough UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Harlow Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/07 | Heybridge Swifts Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Norwich Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
3-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Notts County England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Harrogate Town England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
Southampton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | SC Preussen Munster Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/07 | Eintracht Braunschweig Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Eastleigh UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 12/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Man City England FA Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 21/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | Swansea England Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colchester vs Southampton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Southampton win (69%). Probabilities: Colchester 13%, draw 18%, Southampton 69%.
How many goals are expected in Colchester vs Southampton?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Colchester 0.91 · Southampton 2.32), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Southampton?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.