Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 04/08, 16:00

Prediction: Respublika FA vs Gazalkent

Team pages: Respublika FA · Gazalkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Respublika FA1.5

Gazalkent1.26

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Respublika FA Draw Gazalkent

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Respublika FA 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Gazalkent 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Respublika FA 1459 · Gazalkent 1536

	Respublika FA	Draw	Gazalkent
Our model	42%	28%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gazalkent (rating 1459 vs 1536).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Respublika FA	Gazalkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/63/13%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.1	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +1’	2.15	3.30	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	12	10	2	0	29	8	32
2	Shurtan	12	8	2	2	18	12	26
3	Kattaqorgon	12	7	3	2	15	7	24
4	Metallurg Bekabad	12	6	3	3	30	11	21
5	FC Lochin	12	6	3	3	20	14	21
6	Fardu Ferghana	12	5	4	3	16	20	19
7	Olympic Mobiuz	12	5	3	4	25	14	18
8	Gazalkent	12	5	3	4	17	16	18
9	Jayxun	12	4	2	6	14	18	14
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	12	4	1	7	14	23	13
11	Respublika FA	12	3	3	6	14	14	12
12	BuxDu	12	3	1	8	10	26	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	12	1	1	10	7	29	4
14	PFC Terdu	12	1	1	10	8	25	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Respublika FA	Gazalkent
Shurtan	1-2 L	2-0 W
Jayxun	1-2 L	0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	3-0 W	2-1 W
PFC Terdu	4-2 W	1-2 L
FC Yaypan Fergana	0-1 L	2-1 W
FC Lochin	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gazalkent (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Respublika FA

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-2	6	0	L
25/07	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
08/06	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	3-0	9	3	W
04/06	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	4-2	4	7	W
31/05	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
14/05	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
05/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
01/05	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
21/04	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-2	5	2	L

Gazalkent

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
23/07	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	3-2	8	6	W
10/06	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	2-0	0	3	W
03/06	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/05	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
20/05	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan Cup	0-2	1-5	3	7	L
15/05	FC Lochin Uzbekistan Cup	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan Cup	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
06/05	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
30/04	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	2-1	10	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Respublika FA vs Gazalkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Respublika FA win (42%). Probabilities: Respublika FA 42%, draw 27%, Gazalkent 31%.

How many goals are expected in Respublika FA vs Gazalkent?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Respublika FA 1.5 · Gazalkent 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Respublika FA vs Gazalkent?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.