Football · Bulgaria Second League · 09/08, 17:00

Prediction: Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

Team pages: Sportist Svoge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Sportist Svoge1.27

Pirin Blagoevgrad0.9

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Sportist Svoge Draw Pirin Blagoevgrad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportist Svoge 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLWDD

Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDLWLL

Head-to-head

Sportist Svoge 3–1–2 Pirin Blagoevgrad (6 last)

Sportist Svoge2-0Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad0-0Sportist Svoge
Pirin Blagoevgrad1-0Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge0-1Pirin Blagoevgrad
Pirin Blagoevgrad1-2Sportist Svoge
Pirin Blagoevgrad1-3Sportist Svoge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportist Svoge 1472 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1455

	Sportist Svoge	Draw	Pirin Blagoevgrad
Our model	44%	31%	25%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sportist Svoge: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportist Svoge	Pirin Blagoevgrad
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30 +3’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportist Svoge 3–1–2 Pirin Blagoevgrad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	2-0 HT 0-0	Pirin Blagoevgrad
08/11/25 Bulgaria Second League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportist Svoge
04/12/24 Bulgaria Second League	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportist Svoge
20/07/24 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	0-1 HT 0-1	Pirin Blagoevgrad
14/01/23 Club Friendly List	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1-2 HT 1-0	Sportist Svoge
22/01/22 Club Friendly List	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1-3 HT 0-0	Sportist Svoge

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spartak Pleven	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
3	Vihren Sandanski	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
4	Chernomorets Burgas	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Marek Dupnitsa	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
6	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
7	Ludogorets Razgrad II	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Beroe	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	FK Fratria	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Sportist Svoge	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Montana	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
12	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	CSKA Sofia II	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
14	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
15	Yantra Gabrovo	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	Rilski Sportist	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
17	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1	0	0	1	1	5	0
17	Nesebar	1	0	0	1	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportist Svoge	Pirin Blagoevgrad
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	0-0 D	1-5 L
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-0 W	2-2 D
Chernomorets Burgas	0-1 L	0-2 L
Belasitsa	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sportist Svoge (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportist Svoge

DLLWLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/07	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
23/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/05	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	1-2	3-2	2	4	W
16/04	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
10/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	14	5	L
04/04	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Pirin Blagoevgrad

WDLDLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-5	2	4	L
23/05	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
15/05	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-1	8	4	W
11/05	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
02/05	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
25/04	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-2	2-3	2	2	L
16/04	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
09/04	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
04/04	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/03	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportist Svoge win (44%). Probabilities: Sportist Svoge 44%, draw 30%, Pirin Blagoevgrad 26%.

How many goals are expected in Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Sportist Svoge 1.27 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 0.9), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.