Football · Bulgaria Second League · 09/08, 19:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs FK Fratria

Team pages: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa · FK Fratria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1.18

FK Fratria1.34

1X2

31% 29% 39%

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Draw FK Fratria

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLLLWD

FK Fratria 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWWDLW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 2–1–1 FK Fratria (4 last)

FK Fratria3-0Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa1-1FK Fratria
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa2-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria1-2Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1460 · FK Fratria 1525

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	Draw	FK Fratria
Our model	31%	29%	39%
Market	31%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1460 vs 1525).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	FK Fratria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.4	2.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30 +3’	2.88	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 2–1–1 FK Fratria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	3-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa
06/10/25 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Fratria
07/05/25 Bulgaria Second League	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Fratria
09/11/24 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	1-2 HT 0-1	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spartak Pleven	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
3	Vihren Sandanski	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
4	Chernomorets Burgas	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Marek Dupnitsa	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
6	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
7	Ludogorets Razgrad II	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Beroe	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	FK Fratria	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Sportist Svoge	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Montana	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
12	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	CSKA Sofia II	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
14	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
15	Yantra Gabrovo	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	Rilski Sportist	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
17	Pirin Blagoevgrad	1	0	0	1	1	5	0
17	Nesebar	1	0	0	1	1	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	FK Fratria
Dunav Ruse	2-1 W	2-2 D
CSKA Sofia II	0-3 L	2-2 D
Spartak Pleven	2-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

WWLDLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Dunav Ruse Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
23/05	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
15/05	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-4	2-5	–	–	L
11/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
25/04	Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
17/04	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	3	5	D
09/04	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/04	FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
29/03	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W

FK Fratria

WDDLDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
25/07	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
27/06	Farul Constanta Club Friendly List	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/05	Belasitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/05	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	8	8	D
04/05	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
26/04	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
16/04	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/04	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs FK Fratria?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Fratria win (39%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 31%, draw 29%, FK Fratria 39%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs FK Fratria?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa 1.18 · FK Fratria 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs FK Fratria?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.