Football · Australia Cup · 12/08, 11:30
Prediction: Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58
Team pages: Apia L Tigers · Sydney United 58
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Apia L Tigers1.57
Sydney United 581.06
1X2
Apia L Tigers
Draw
Sydney United 58
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Apia L Tigers
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Sydney United 58
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Apia L Tigers
1–1–4
Sydney United 58
(6 last)
- Apia L Tigers2-1Sydney United 58
- Apia L Tigers2-2Sydney United 58
- Sydney United 582-1Apia L Tigers
- Apia L Tigers1-2Sydney United 58
- Sydney United 582-0Apia L Tigers
- Apia L Tigers1-5Sydney United 58
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Apia L Tigers 1576 · Sydney United 58 1532
| Apia L Tigers | Draw | Sydney United 58 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Apia L Tigers (rating 1576 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Sydney United 58: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Apia L Tigers | Sydney United 58 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Apia L Tigers 1–1–4 Sydney United 58
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Sydney United 58 |
| 20/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Sydney United 58 |
| 06/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sydney United 58 | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Apia L Tigers |
| 28/08/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Sydney United 58 |
| 21/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Sydney United 58 | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Apia L Tigers |
| 14/04/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Apia L Tigers | 1-5 HT 0-4 | Sydney United 58 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Apia L Tigers | Sydney United 58 |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC U21 | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Rockdale Ilinden FC | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Blacktown City | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Wollongong Wolves | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Apia L Tigers (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Apia L Tigers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | St George Saints Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/08 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-3 | 5-3 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Peninsula Power Australia Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 11/07 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
Sydney United 58
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | NWS Spirit FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 22/07 | Central Coast Mariners Australia Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Rockdale Ilinden FC Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 05/07 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 12/06 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Apia L Tigers win (49%). Probabilities: Apia L Tigers 49%, draw 25%, Sydney United 58 26%.
How many goals are expected in Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Apia L Tigers 1.57 · Sydney United 58 1.06), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Apia L Tigers vs Sydney United 58?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.