Football · Australia Cup · 11/08, 11:30
Prediction: Lions FC vs Melbourne City
Team pages: Lions FC · Melbourne City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Lions FC1.03
Melbourne City1.7
1X2
Lions FC
Draw
Melbourne City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lions FC
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Melbourne City
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lions FC 1604 · Melbourne City 1566
| Lions FC | Draw | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Market | 24% | 22% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lions FC | Melbourne City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.8 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6 | 2.6 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lions FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 21/07 | Perth Glory Australia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 18/07 | Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/07 | Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland |
2-0 | 6-2 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Magic United Australia NPL Queensland |
4-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 1 | W |
Melbourne City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Weston Workers FC Australia Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Auckland FC Australia A-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Adelaide United Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | Brisbane Roar Australia A-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Wellington Phoenix Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/04 | Central Coast Mariners Australia A-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers Australia A-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 22/03 | Perth Glory Australia A-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/03 | Sydney FC Australia A-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/03 | Buriram United AFC Champions League Elite |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lions FC vs Melbourne City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne City win (53%). Probabilities: Lions FC 23%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 53%.
How many goals are expected in Lions FC vs Melbourne City?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Lions FC 1.03 · Melbourne City 1.7), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lions FC vs Melbourne City?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.