Football · Australia Cup · 09/08, 11:40

Prediction: South Melbourne vs Fremantle City FC

Team pages: South Melbourne · Fremantle City FC

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
South Melbourne2.5
Fremantle City FC0.73
1X2
76% 16% 9%
South Melbourne Draw Fremantle City FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
South Melbourne 6-2-2 (W-D-L)
DLWLWWDWWW
Fremantle City FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)
LWWWWDWWWD
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Melbourne 1557 · Fremantle City FC 1579
South MelbourneDrawFremantle City FC
Our model75%17%8%
Market76%15%9%
Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

  • High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

South MelbourneFremantle City FC
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 0.92.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.41.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/50/10%40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)3.2 / 6.82.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.7 / 01.9 / 0.2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Melbourne

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
02/08 St Albans Saints
Australia NPL Victoria
2-0 2-0 14 W
30/07 Adelaide United
Australia Cup
1-1 2-1 72 W
24/07 Oakleigh Cannons
Australia NPL Victoria
0-0 2-1 61 W
18/07 Preston Lions
Australia NPL Victoria
0-0 0-0 54 D
10/07 Dandenong City
Australia NPL Victoria
1-0 2-0 61 W
05/07 Dandenong Thunder
Australia NPL Victoria
0-0 1-0 95 W
28/06 Green Gully
Australia NPL Victoria
0-1 1-2 134 L
19/06 Bentleigh Greens
Australia NPL Victoria
3-1 5-1 102 W
07/06 Altona Magic
Australia NPL Victoria
2-1 2-3 62 L
30/05 Hume City
Australia NPL Victoria
0-0 1-1 52 D

Fremantle City FC

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
01/08 Perth SC
Australia Western Australia Premier League
1-1 2-2 68 D
22/07 Maitland FC
Australia Cup
0-0 2-1 11 W
18/07 Perth RedStar FC
Australia Western Australia Premier League
2-0 3-0 20 W
11/07 Sorrento
Australia Western Australia Premier League
2-0 2-0 00 W
04/07 Bayswater City
Australia Western Australia Premier League
1-0 1-1 110 D
27/06 Western Knights
Australia Western Australia Premier League
0-0 3-0 75 W
20/06 Dianella White Eagles
Australia Western Australia Premier League
0-0 1-0 32 W
16/06 Olympic Kingsway
Australia Cup Qualifying
1-1 3-1 61 W
13/06 Balcatta
Australia Western Australia Premier League
3-1 5-2 42 W
06/06 Armadale
Australia Western Australia Premier League
1-1 1-2 42 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Melbourne vs Fremantle City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Melbourne win (76%). Probabilities: South Melbourne 76%, draw 16%, Fremantle City FC 9%.

How many goals are expected in South Melbourne vs Fremantle City FC?

The model expects 3.23 goals (South Melbourne 2.5 · Fremantle City FC 0.73), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in South Melbourne vs Fremantle City FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.