Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 02/08, 03:00

Prediction: CD Olimpia vs Lobos UPNFM

Team pages: CD Olimpia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

CD Olimpia2.22

Lobos UPNFM0.76

1X2

70% 19% 11%

CD Olimpia Draw Lobos UPNFM

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

CD Olimpia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWLWW

Lobos UPNFM 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLDLLLW

Head-to-head

CD Olimpia 5–1–0 Lobos UPNFM (6 last)

CD Olimpia0-0Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM0-1CD Olimpia
Lobos UPNFM1-2CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia2-0Lobos UPNFM
CD Olimpia2-0Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM0-1CD Olimpia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Olimpia 1576 · Lobos UPNFM 1431

	CD Olimpia	Draw	Lobos UPNFM
Our model	70%	20%	10%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1576 vs 1431).
H2H favours CD Olimpia: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Olimpia	Lobos UPNFM
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.6	1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.5 / 1.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +1’	1.27	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Olimpia 5–1–0 Lobos UPNFM

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	0-0 HT 0-0	Lobos UPNFM
08/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia
06/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	1-2 HT 1-0	CD Olimpia
27/07/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-0 HT 1-0	Lobos UPNFM
06/03/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-0 HT 1-0	Lobos UPNFM
19/01/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	1	1	0	3	0	3
2	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Choloma	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Estrella Roja	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Genesis de Comayagua	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CD Marathon	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CD Olimpia	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Motagua	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Juticalpa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lobos UPNFM	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Olancho FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	CD Platense	1	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Olimpia	Lobos UPNFM
Motagua	1-0 W	2-1 W
CD Marathon	0-1 L	0-2 L
Real Espana	3-2 W	1-1 D
CD Platense	4-0 W	1-4 L
Atletico Choloma	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CD Olimpia (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Olimpia

WWLWWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Deportivo Mixco CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
24/07	Motagua Honduras Super Cup	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
16/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
13/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	7	4	W
10/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-3	8	2	L
07/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
01/05	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
26/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	2-3	3	3	L
23/04	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	10	9	W
19/04	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-1	–	–	W

Lobos UPNFM

LLWDLDLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/04	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
19/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-4	4	3	L
13/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
03/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
24/03	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
21/03	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/03	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Olimpia vs Lobos UPNFM?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Olimpia win (70%). Probabilities: CD Olimpia 70%, draw 19%, Lobos UPNFM 11%.

How many goals are expected in CD Olimpia vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model expects 2.98 goals (CD Olimpia 2.22 · Lobos UPNFM 0.76), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Olimpia vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.