Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 02/08, 21:30

Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico Barinas

Team pages: Academia Puerto Cabello II · Atletico Barinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Academia Puerto Cabello II1.72

Atletico Barinas1.18

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Academia Puerto Cabello II Draw Atletico Barinas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Puerto Cabello II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Barinas 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Academia Puerto Cabello II 0–2 Atletico Barinas (2 last)

Atletico Barinas2-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II1-2Atletico Barinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1458 · Atletico Barinas 1547

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Draw	Atletico Barinas
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Barinas (rating 1458 vs 1547).
H2H favours Atletico Barinas: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Atletico Barinas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	3.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +9’	1.83	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello II 0–0–2 Atletico Barinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	2-1 HT 1-1	Academia Puerto Cabello II
08/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-2 HT 0-2	Atletico Barinas

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urena SC	18	10	6	2	30	16	36
2	CD Lara	18	10	5	3	29	17	35
3	Barquisimeto	18	10	5	3	28	16	35
4	Yaracuyanos	17	7	4	6	21	18	25
5	Zamora II	17	6	6	5	26	23	24
6	Atletico Barinas	18	7	2	9	35	37	23
7	Academia Puerto Cabello II	18	6	3	9	22	23	21
8	Real Frontera	18	3	2	13	18	37	11
9	Atletico El Vigia	18	2	5	11	14	36	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Puerto Cabello II	Atletico Barinas
Urena SC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Barquisimeto	2-2 D	2-1 W
Zamora II	1-2 L	2-2 D
Real Frontera	2-1 W	3-1 W
CD Lara	1-1 D	1-4 L
Yaracuyanos	0-1 L	2-1 W
Atletico El Vigia	1-0 W	7-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Barinas (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Academia Puerto Cabello II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
25/07	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
05/06	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
24/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
20/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
16/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
10/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/04	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-3	5	9	L
18/04	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	6	8	L

Atletico Barinas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
24/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
20/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
09/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
03/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	10	6	W
26/04	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-2	3-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico Barinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Puerto Cabello II win (49%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello II 49%, draw 26%, Atletico Barinas 25%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico Barinas?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello II 1.72 · Atletico Barinas 1.18), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico Barinas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.