Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 09/08, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Avila vs Aragua

Team pages: Atletico Avila · Aragua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.73Total

Atletico Avila0.79

Aragua0.93

1X2

30% 33% 38%

Atletico Avila Draw Aragua

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Avila 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDDLDDLL

Aragua 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Avila 0–2–0 Aragua (2 last)

Aragua1-1Atletico Avila
Atletico Avila0-0Aragua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Avila 1455 · Aragua 1514

	Atletico Avila	Draw	Aragua
Our model	28%	36%	36%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 1.73 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aragua (rating 1455 vs 1514).
Cards-heavy: 13.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Avila	Aragua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.1	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 2.8	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.1	6.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +4’	2.88	3.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Avila 0–2–0 Aragua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Avila
15/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Avila	0-0 HT 0-0	Aragua

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monagas II	15	8	4	3	22	15	28
2	Deportivo Miranda FC	16	8	4	4	13	9	28
3	Aragua	16	6	5	5	14	12	23
4	Dynamo Puerto FC	16	5	7	4	18	16	22
5	Bolivar SC	16	6	3	7	15	17	21
6	CS Maritimo de La Guaira	14	5	5	4	16	13	20
7	Atletico Avila	15	1	9	5	8	14	12
8	Mineros	16	1	7	8	11	21	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Avila	Aragua
Deportivo Miranda FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Mineros	1-1 D	2-0 W
Bolivar SC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Monagas II	0-2 L	1-2 L
Dynamo Puerto FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
CS Maritimo de La Guaira	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aragua (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Avila

DWLDDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
24/06	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Cup	0-2	1-3	4	3	L
07/06	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/05	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
17/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
09/05	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
03/05	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
26/04	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	3-2	4	9	W
11/04	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	7	D

Aragua

WDDDWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
24/06	Caracas Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
31/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
23/05	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
16/05	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
09/05	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
03/05	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
25/04	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Avila vs Aragua?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aragua win (38%). Probabilities: Atletico Avila 30%, draw 33%, Aragua 38%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Avila vs Aragua?

The model expects 1.73 goals (Atletico Avila 0.79 · Aragua 0.93), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Avila vs Aragua?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.