Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 09/08, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Barinas vs Zamora II

Team pages: Atletico Barinas · Zamora II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Atletico Barinas1.73

Zamora II1.57

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Atletico Barinas Draw Zamora II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Barinas 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWLWL

Zamora II 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Atletico Barinas 0–2–0 Zamora II (2 last)

Zamora II2-2Atletico Barinas
Atletico Barinas2-2Zamora II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Barinas 1526 · Zamora II 1525

	Atletico Barinas	Draw	Zamora II
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Barinas	Zamora II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +4’	2.25	3.30	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Barinas 0–2–0 Zamora II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Zamora II	2-2 HT 1-2	Atletico Barinas
15/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	2-2 HT 1-2	Zamora II

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urena SC	19	10	7	2	32	18	37
2	CD Lara	19	10	6	3	31	19	36
3	Barquisimeto	18	10	5	3	28	16	35
4	Yaracuyanos	18	7	5	6	23	20	26
5	Zamora II	18	6	7	5	28	25	25
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	19	7	3	9	27	26	24
7	Atletico Barinas	19	7	2	10	38	42	23
8	Atletico El Vigia	19	3	5	11	17	37	14
9	Real Frontera	19	3	2	14	19	40	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Barinas	Zamora II
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-5 L	2-1 W
Real Frontera	3-1 W	2-0 W
CD Lara	1-4 L	1-4 L
Yaracuyanos	2-1 W	3-2 W
Atletico El Vigia	7-1 W	1-1 D
Urena SC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Barquisimeto	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Barinas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-3	3-5	4	6	L
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
24/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
20/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
09/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
03/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-1	10	6	W

Zamora II

DWDDWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	9	9	D
29/07	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
05/06	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	2	8	W
30/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
24/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-4	5	4	L
20/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	3-2	3	9	W
16/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
09/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-2	2	6	D
03/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/04	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	2	12	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Barinas vs Zamora II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Barinas win (40%). Probabilities: Atletico Barinas 40%, draw 26%, Zamora II 34%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Barinas vs Zamora II?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Atletico Barinas 1.73 · Zamora II 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Barinas vs Zamora II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.