Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 09/08, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico El Vigia vs Academia Puerto Cabello II

Team pages: Atletico El Vigia · Academia Puerto Cabello II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Atletico El Vigia1.41

Academia Puerto Cabello II1.52

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Atletico El Vigia Draw Academia Puerto Cabello II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico El Vigia 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLDWW

Academia Puerto Cabello II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLDLW

Head-to-head

Atletico El Vigia 3–1–2 Academia Puerto Cabello II (6 last)

Academia Puerto Cabello II1-0Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia1-4Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II1-2Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia5-1Academia Puerto Cabello II
Academia Puerto Cabello II0-0Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia3-0Academia Puerto Cabello II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico El Vigia 1453 · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1484

	Atletico El Vigia	Draw	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico El Vigia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico El Vigia	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.5	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	6.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +4’	2.63	3.30	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico El Vigia 3–1–2 Academia Puerto Cabello II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico El Vigia
15/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	1-4 HT 1-1	Academia Puerto Cabello II
03/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-2 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
20/07/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	5-1 HT 4-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II
18/05/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico El Vigia
06/04/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	3-0 HT 1-0	Academia Puerto Cabello II

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urena SC	19	10	7	2	32	18	37
2	CD Lara	19	10	6	3	31	19	36
3	Barquisimeto	18	10	5	3	28	16	35
4	Yaracuyanos	18	7	5	6	23	20	26
5	Zamora II	18	6	7	5	28	25	25
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	19	7	3	9	27	26	24
7	Atletico Barinas	19	7	2	10	38	42	23
8	Atletico El Vigia	19	3	5	11	17	37	14
9	Real Frontera	19	3	2	14	19	40	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico El Vigia	Academia Puerto Cabello II
Real Frontera	3-1 W	2-1 W
CD Lara	2-1 W	1-1 D
Yaracuyanos	0-0 D	0-1 L
Atletico Barinas	1-7 L	5-3 W
Urena SC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Barquisimeto	0-5 L	2-2 D
Zamora II	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico El Vigia (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico El Vigia

LLDLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
29/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
24/06	Zamora Venezuela Cup	1-4	1-6	5	5	L
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L
24/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-5	2	6	L
16/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
10/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
03/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	6	6	L

Academia Puerto Cabello II

LLWLDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	3-2	5-3	3	6	W
29/07	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
25/07	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
05/06	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
24/05	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
20/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
16/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
10/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/04	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-3	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico El Vigia vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Academia Puerto Cabello II win (39%). Probabilities: Atletico El Vigia 34%, draw 27%, Academia Puerto Cabello II 39%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico El Vigia vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Atletico El Vigia 1.41 · Academia Puerto Cabello II 1.52), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico El Vigia vs Academia Puerto Cabello II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.