Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 09/08, 21:30

Prediction: Urena SC vs Barquisimeto

Team pages: Urena SC · Barquisimeto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Urena SC1.25

Barquisimeto1.13

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Urena SC Draw Barquisimeto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Urena SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWWWD

Barquisimeto 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWLDW

Head-to-head

Urena SC 0–2–4 Barquisimeto (6 last)

Barquisimeto0-0Urena SC
Urena SC1-2Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-1Urena SC
Urena SC1-1Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-0Urena SC
Urena SC0-3Barquisimeto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Urena SC 1559 · Barquisimeto 1506

	Urena SC	Draw	Barquisimeto
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Urena SC (rating 1559 vs 1506).
H2H favours Barquisimeto: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Urena SC	Barquisimeto
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	1.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +4’	2.30	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Urena SC 0–2–4 Barquisimeto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	0-0 HT 0-0	Urena SC
15/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Barquisimeto
04/10/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-1 HT 1-0	Urena SC
24/08/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-1 HT 1-1	Barquisimeto
28/06/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-0 HT 0-0	Urena SC
10/05/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	0-3 HT 0-1	Barquisimeto

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urena SC	19	10	7	2	32	18	37
2	CD Lara	19	10	6	3	31	19	36
3	Barquisimeto	18	10	5	3	28	16	35
4	Yaracuyanos	18	7	5	6	23	20	26
5	Zamora II	18	6	7	5	28	25	25
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	19	7	3	9	27	26	24
7	Atletico Barinas	19	7	2	10	38	42	23
8	Atletico El Vigia	19	3	5	11	17	37	14
9	Real Frontera	19	3	2	14	19	40	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Urena SC	Barquisimeto
Zamora II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	1-0 W	2-2 D
Real Frontera	5-1 W	2-1 W
CD Lara	1-0 W	0-1 L
Yaracuyanos	1-1 D	0-4 L
Atletico El Vigia	2-1 W	5-0 W
Atletico Barinas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Urena SC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Urena SC

LDWWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-2	2	9	D
29/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
25/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	3-0	5-1	4	6	W
24/06	CD Lara Venezuela Cup	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
06/06	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-2	2	6	W
31/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
20/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
09/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
03/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

Barquisimeto

DDLWLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	1	9	W
25/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	2	9	D
24/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Cup	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
06/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
30/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
24/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
20/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
16/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
09/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/04	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	6	12	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Urena SC vs Barquisimeto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Urena SC win (38%). Probabilities: Urena SC 38%, draw 29%, Barquisimeto 33%.

How many goals are expected in Urena SC vs Barquisimeto?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Urena SC 1.25 · Barquisimeto 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Urena SC vs Barquisimeto?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.