Football · Tanzania Premier League · 14/08, 15:15

Prediction: Mbeya City vs Geita Gold

Team pages: Mbeya City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Mbeya City1.13

Geita Gold0.92

1X2

40% 32% 29%

Mbeya City Draw Geita Gold

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Mbeya City 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWDDWD

Geita Gold 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Mbeya City 3–2–1 Geita Gold (6 last)

Mbeya City1-0Geita Gold
Geita Gold0-1Mbeya City
Mbeya City0-0Geita Gold
Mbeya City0-1Geita Gold
Geita Gold1-1Mbeya City
Mbeya City1-0Geita Gold

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mbeya City 1504 · Geita Gold 1607

	Mbeya City	Draw	Geita Gold
Our model	39%	33%	28%
Market	40%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Geita Gold (rating 1504 vs 1607).
H2H favours Mbeya City: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mbeya City	Geita Gold
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	86/14/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.8	– / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.90

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +57’	2.25	2.90	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mbeya City 3–2–1 Geita Gold

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/12/24 Tanzania First Division	Mbeya City	1-0 HT 0-0	Geita Gold
13/05/23 Tanzania Premier League	Geita Gold	0-1 HT 0-0	Mbeya City
20/11/22 Tanzania Premier League	Mbeya City	0-0 HT 0-0	Geita Gold
02/04/22 Tanzania Premier League	Mbeya City	0-1 HT 0-1	Geita Gold
23/10/21 Tanzania Premier League	Geita Gold	1-1 HT 0-1	Mbeya City
01/08/20 Tanzania Play-Offs	Mbeya City	1-0 HT 1-0	Geita Gold

Standings · Tanzania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Azam FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Coastal Union	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dodoma Jiji FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Singida Fountain Gate FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Geita Gold	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKT Tanzania	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kagera Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mashujaa FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mbeya City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Namungo FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pamba SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Polisi Tanzania FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Simba Sports Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Singida Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TRA United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Young Africans	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Mbeya City

LDLWLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/07	Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/07	Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League Play-Offs	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
30/06	TRA United Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
27/06	Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League	1-1	1-1	10	1	D
24/06	Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	1	W
17/06	Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
13/06	Mtibwa Sugar Tanzania Premier League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/05	Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	1-2	1-4	0	2	L
21/05	Namungo FC Tanzania Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
13/05	Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	0	L

Geita Gold

DWWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/06	Bigman FC Tanzania First Division	2-0	2-0	6	0	W
14/06	Stand United Tanzania First Division	2-1	3-1	8	1	W
07/06	Songea United Tanzania First Division	2-0	3-1	7	1	W
30/05	Ken Gold FC Tanzania First Division	3-1	5-1	8	0	W
23/05	Kagera Sugar Tanzania First Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/05	TMA FC Tanzania First Division	3-0	4-0	7	0	W
02/05	Mbuni FC Tanzania First Division	–	5-1	–	–	W
25/04	B19 FC Tanzania First Division	2-0	2-0	5	7	W
19/04	Hausang FC Tanzania First Division	–	6-1	–	–	W
10/04	Mashujaa FC Tanzania Cup	0-0	0-0	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mbeya City vs Geita Gold?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mbeya City win (40%). Probabilities: Mbeya City 40%, draw 32%, Geita Gold 29%.

How many goals are expected in Mbeya City vs Geita Gold?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Mbeya City 1.13 · Geita Gold 0.92), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Mbeya City vs Geita Gold?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.