Football · Tanzania Premier League · 23/08, 18:00

Prediction: Azam FC vs Pamba SC

Team pages: Azam FC · Pamba SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Azam FC2.22

Pamba SC0.6

1X2

74% 19% 8%

Azam FC Draw Pamba SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Azam FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWDW

Pamba SC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Azam FC 1–2–1 Pamba SC (4 last)

Azam FC2-0Pamba SC
Pamba SC2-2Azam FC
Pamba SC1-0Azam FC
Azam FC0-0Pamba SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Azam FC 1580 · Pamba SC 1434

	Azam FC	Draw	Pamba SC
Our model	74%	19%	8%
Market	74%	19%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Azam FC (rating 1580 vs 1434).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Azam FC	Pamba SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	2.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X4.75

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.25 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	11.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:43 +5’	1.22	4.75	11.00
12:27 +5’	1.22	4.75	12.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:29 +2’	1.21	5.01	10.46
13:44 +13’	1.25▲	4.72▼	8.64▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Azam FC 1–2–1 Pamba SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Tanzania Premier League	Azam FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Pamba SC
02/03/26 Tanzania Premier League	Pamba SC	2-2 HT 1-0	Azam FC
09/02/25 Tanzania Premier League	Pamba SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Azam FC
14/09/24 Tanzania Premier League	Azam FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Pamba SC

Standings · Tanzania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Simba Sports Club	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
2	Young Africans	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	Geita Gold	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
4	Singida Black Stars	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
5	Polisi Tanzania FC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Azam FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Mbeya City	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
8	Mashujaa FC	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	Namungo FC	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
10	Singida Fountain Gate FC	2	1	0	1	1	3	3
11	Pamba SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	TRA United	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Dodoma Jiji FC	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
13	JKT Tanzania	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Kagera Sugar	3	0	1	2	3	9	1
16	Coastal Union	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Azam FC	Pamba SC
Dodoma Jiji FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Coastal Union	2-0 W	1-2 L
KMC FC	3-0 W	1-0 W
Tanzania Prisons	2-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Azam FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Azam FC

WWWWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	TRA United Tanzania Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
15/08	Polisi Tanzania FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
30/06	Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	2-0	12	4	W
27/06	Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/06	Young Africans Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
16/06	Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/06	Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/05	KMC FC Tanzania Premier League	3-0	3-0	6	1	W
22/05	Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/05	Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	6	W

Pamba SC

LWLLWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League	0-2	1-2	0	6	L
14/08	Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
30/06	Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
24/06	Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
18/06	Mtibwa Sugar Tanzania Premier League	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
14/06	Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
26/05	Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
20/05	KMC FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/05	Azam FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Azam FC vs Pamba SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Azam FC win (74%). Probabilities: Azam FC 74%, draw 19%, Pamba SC 8%.

How many goals are expected in Azam FC vs Pamba SC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Azam FC 2.22 · Pamba SC 0.6), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Azam FC vs Pamba SC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.