Football · China Division 2 · 02/08, 13:30

Prediction: Wenzhou FC vs Jiangxi Lushan

Team pages: Wenzhou FC · Jiangxi Lushan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Wenzhou FC0.89

Jiangxi Lushan1.21

1X2

26% 31% 42%

Wenzhou FC Draw Jiangxi Lushan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wenzhou FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Jiangxi Lushan 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Wenzhou FC 0–1 Jiangxi Lushan (1 last)

Jiangxi Lushan3-1Wenzhou FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wenzhou FC 1481 · Jiangxi Lushan 1495

	Wenzhou FC	Draw	Jiangxi Lushan
Our model	26%	32%	42%
Market	26%	31%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wenzhou FC	Jiangxi Lushan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.3	1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X2.90

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:24 +3’	3.40	2.90	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wenzhou FC 0–0–1 Jiangxi Lushan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	3-1 HT 2-1	Wenzhou FC

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	17	11	1	5	26	13	34
2	Shenzhen 2028	18	9	6	3	30	22	33
3	Hubei Istar	17	8	6	3	26	18	30
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	18	6	7	5	17	18	25
5	Xiamen Feilu	18	6	7	5	26	21	25
6	Jiangxi Lushan	17	7	4	6	20	16	25
7	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	18	5	9	4	18	24	24
8	Guangdong Mingtu	18	4	9	5	19	19	21
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	18	5	5	8	18	23	20
10	Wenzhou FC	17	3	7	7	11	19	16
11	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	18	3	6	9	10	20	15
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	18	2	7	9	12	20	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wenzhou FC	Jiangxi Lushan
Guangzhou Dandelion	0-0 D	2-0 W
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	0-0 D	1-2 L
Ganzhou Ruishi	0-1 L	0-1 L
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	2-1 W	2-1 W
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	2-1 W	1-0 W
Xiamen Feilu	1-0 W	0-2 L
Shenzhen 2028	0-4 L	1-2 L
Guangdong Mingtu	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wenzhou FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
18/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	1-2	16	2	L
05/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
24/06	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
20/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
13/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
26/05	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/05	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
09/05	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	1-2	1-3	3	4	L

Jiangxi Lushan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
19/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
28/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
24/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	Henan China FA Cup	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
13/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
27/05	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
23/05	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wenzhou FC vs Jiangxi Lushan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jiangxi Lushan win (42%). Probabilities: Wenzhou FC 26%, draw 31%, Jiangxi Lushan 42%.

How many goals are expected in Wenzhou FC vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Wenzhou FC 0.89 · Jiangxi Lushan 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Wenzhou FC vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.