Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 01/11, 14:30
Prediction: Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro
Team pages: Gubbio · Vis Pesaro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Gubbio1.64
Vis Pesaro1.14
1X2
Gubbio
Draw
Vis Pesaro
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Gubbio
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Vis Pesaro
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gubbio
3–2–1
Vis Pesaro
(6 last)
- Gubbio5-0Vis Pesaro
- Gubbio1-0Vis Pesaro
- Vis Pesaro1-1Gubbio
- Vis Pesaro1-1Gubbio
- Gubbio1-3Vis Pesaro
- Vis Pesaro1-3Gubbio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gubbio 1454 · Vis Pesaro 1390
| Gubbio | Draw | Vis Pesaro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gubbio (rating 1454 vs 1390).
- H2H favours Gubbio: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gubbio | Vis Pesaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.4 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 1.9 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gubbio 3–2–1 Vis Pesaro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/26 Italy Serie C Cup | Gubbio | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Vis Pesaro |
| 12/02/26 Italy Serie C Group B | Gubbio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vis Pesaro |
| 27/09/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Vis Pesaro | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Gubbio |
| 11/03/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Vis Pesaro | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gubbio |
| 29/10/24 Italy Serie C Group B | Gubbio | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Vis Pesaro |
| 02/02/24 Italy Serie C Group B | Vis Pesaro | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Gubbio |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 29 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pescara | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 18 |
| 5 | Torres | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | AC Reggiana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 7 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| 8 | Livorno | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 9 | Perugia | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 16 |
| 10 | Campobasso | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 15 |
| 11 | FC Vado | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| 12 | US Latina Calcio | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| 13 | ASD Pineto Calcio | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| 14 | Forli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 12 |
| 15 | Atalanta U23 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 12 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 18 | 10 |
| 17 | AS Ostia Mare | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 18 | US Pianese | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 19 | Gubbio | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 7 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gubbio | Vis Pesaro |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Perugia | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Ravenna | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| AS Ostia Mare | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Pescara | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| US Latina Calcio | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| AC Reggiana | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 0 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Gubbio (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gubbio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Spezia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Perugia Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Pescara Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
Vis Pesaro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 18/10 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/09 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 21/09 | Spezia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/09 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-3 | 1-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Forli Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Perugia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Pescara Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gubbio win (47%). Probabilities: Gubbio 47%, draw 27%, Vis Pesaro 25%.
How many goals are expected in Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Gubbio 1.64 · Vis Pesaro 1.14), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.