Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 01/11, 17:30

Prediction: Livorno vs AS Ostia Mare

Team pages: Livorno · AS Ostia Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Livorno1.65

AS Ostia Mare0.95

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Livorno Draw AS Ostia Mare

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Livorno 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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AS Ostia Mare 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDDDLL

Head-to-head

Livorno 3–1–0 AS Ostia Mare (4 last)

AS Ostia Mare0-2Livorno
Livorno2-0AS Ostia Mare
AS Ostia Mare1-1Livorno
Livorno3-1AS Ostia Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Livorno 1485 · AS Ostia Mare 1466

	Livorno	Draw	AS Ostia Mare
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	53%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Livorno: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Livorno	AS Ostia Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +25’	1.67	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Livorno 3–1–0 AS Ostia Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/02/25 Italy Serie D	AS Ostia Mare	0-2	Livorno
13/10/24 Italy Serie D	Livorno	2-0 HT 2-0	AS Ostia Mare
19/03/23 Italy Serie D	AS Ostia Mare	1-1	Livorno
13/11/22 Italy Serie D	Livorno	3-1 HT 1-1	AS Ostia Mare

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	11	9	2	0	19	5	29
2	Ravenna	11	7	2	2	20	6	23
3	Grosseto	11	6	4	1	23	13	22
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	15	13	18
5	Torres	11	5	3	3	13	12	18
6	AC Reggiana	11	5	2	4	14	11	17
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	11	4	4	3	14	12	16
8	Livorno	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
9	Perugia	11	5	1	5	15	17	16
10	Campobasso	11	4	3	4	16	20	15
11	FC Vado	11	4	3	4	12	11	15
12	US Latina Calcio	11	3	5	3	11	11	14
13	ASD Pineto Calcio	11	3	5	3	9	11	14
14	Forli	11	2	6	3	16	16	12
15	Atalanta U23	10	4	0	6	11	15	12
16	Sambenedettese	11	2	4	5	16	18	10
17	AS Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	10	14	9
18	US Pianese	11	1	6	4	6	10	9
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	10	21	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	1	1	8	10	24	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Livorno	AS Ostia Mare
Grosseto	4-4 D	1-2 L
Forli	1-1 D	1-1 D
Pescara	0-1 L	0-2 L
US Pianese	3-2 W	0-0 D
FC Vado	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Livorno (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Livorno

DWLWDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
16/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-2	4-4	4	5	D
11/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
26/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
21/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	3-2	6	3	W
12/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
06/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
29/08	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	9	D

AS Ostia Mare

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
18/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
10/10	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
04/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
27/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
20/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
16/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
13/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-3	2	5	L
05/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
29/08	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Livorno vs AS Ostia Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Livorno win (53%). Probabilities: Livorno 53%, draw 26%, AS Ostia Mare 21%.

How many goals are expected in Livorno vs AS Ostia Mare?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Livorno 1.65 · AS Ostia Mare 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Livorno vs AS Ostia Mare?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.