Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 01/11, 17:30

Prediction: Campobasso vs Forli

Team pages: Campobasso · Forli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Campobasso1.86

Forli1.22

1X2

51% 26% 24%

Campobasso Draw Forli

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Campobasso 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWDLLW

Forli 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDLDLD

Head-to-head

Campobasso 3–1 Forli (4 last)

Campobasso2-0Forli
Forli2-3Campobasso
Forli1-2Campobasso
Campobasso0-3Forli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Campobasso 1518 · Forli 1457

	Campobasso	Draw	Forli
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Campobasso (rating 1518 vs 1457).
H2H favours Campobasso: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Campobasso	Forli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +5’	1.80	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Campobasso 3–0–1 Forli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Campobasso	2-0 HT 0-0	Forli
14/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Forli	2-3 HT 2-0	Campobasso
20/01/19 Italy Serie D	Forli	1-2	Campobasso
30/09/18 Italy Serie D	Campobasso	0-3	Forli

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	11	9	2	0	19	5	29
2	Ravenna	11	7	2	2	20	6	23
3	Grosseto	11	6	4	1	23	13	22
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	15	13	18
5	Torres	11	5	3	3	13	12	18
6	AC Reggiana	11	5	2	4	14	11	17
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	11	4	4	3	14	12	16
8	Livorno	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
9	Perugia	11	5	1	5	15	17	16
10	Campobasso	11	4	3	4	16	20	15
11	FC Vado	11	4	3	4	12	11	15
12	US Latina Calcio	11	3	5	3	11	11	14
13	ASD Pineto Calcio	11	3	5	3	9	11	14
14	Forli	11	2	6	3	16	16	12
15	Atalanta U23	10	4	0	6	11	15	12
16	Sambenedettese	11	2	4	5	16	18	10
17	AS Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	10	14	9
18	US Pianese	11	1	6	4	6	10	9
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	10	21	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	1	1	8	10	24	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Campobasso	Forli
Torres	1-1 D	1-1 D
ASD Pineto Calcio	2-2 D	1-1 D
FC Vado	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Campobasso (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Campobasso

LLWDDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
18/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-5	4	6	L
11/10	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
04/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/09	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
20/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-2	9	3	D
16/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-2	8	4	D
12/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
29/08	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Forli

WLWDDDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
17/10	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
11/10	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
03/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
27/09	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
16/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
12/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
05/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
29/08	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	3-1	6-3	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Campobasso vs Forli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Campobasso win (51%). Probabilities: Campobasso 51%, draw 26%, Forli 24%.

How many goals are expected in Campobasso vs Forli?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Campobasso 1.86 · Forli 1.22), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Campobasso vs Forli?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.