Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 03/10, 14:30
Prediction: Gubbio vs Perugia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Gubbio1.15
Perugia1.26
1X2
Gubbio
Draw
Perugia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Gubbio
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Perugia
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gubbio
2–2–2
Perugia
(6 last)
- Perugia0-1Gubbio
- Gubbio1-1Perugia
- Gubbio1-0Perugia
- Perugia1-1Gubbio
- Gubbio0-1Perugia
- Perugia1-0Gubbio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gubbio 1526 · Perugia 1463
| Gubbio | Draw | Perugia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gubbio (rating 1526 vs 1463).
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gubbio | Perugia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.3 | 3 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gubbio 2–2–2 Perugia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gubbio |
| 06/09/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Gubbio | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Perugia |
| 20/01/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Gubbio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Perugia |
| 15/09/24 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Gubbio |
| 17/03/24 Italy Serie C Group B | Gubbio | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Perugia |
| 12/11/23 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gubbio |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 19 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | AC Reggiana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Livorno | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Campobasso | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| 7 | Torres | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Forli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| 9 | Perugia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta U23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 11 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 12 | Pescara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | AS Ostia Mare | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Gubbio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| 15 | ASD Pineto Calcio | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
| 16 | US Latina Calcio | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 16 | FC Vado | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 18 | Vis Pesaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 4 |
| 19 | US Pianese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| 20 | Sambenedettese | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gubbio | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| Ravenna | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| AS Ostia Mare | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Campobasso | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| AC Reggiana | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| ASD Pineto Calcio | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Gubbio (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gubbio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Pescara Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Torres Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Perugia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 16/09 | Spezia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Forli Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Ternana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gubbio vs Perugia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Perugia win (38%). Probabilities: Gubbio 32%, draw 30%, Perugia 38%.
How many goals are expected in Gubbio vs Perugia?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Gubbio 1.15 · Perugia 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gubbio vs Perugia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.