Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 23/10, 20:30

Prediction: Perugia vs Pescara

Team pages: Perugia · Pescara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Perugia1.39

Pescara1.36

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Perugia Draw Pescara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Perugia 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWWLW

Pescara 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Perugia 2–3–1 Pescara (6 last)

Perugia0-0Pescara
Pescara0-0Perugia
Pescara0-1Perugia
Perugia1-1Pescara
Perugia2-1Pescara
Pescara2-1Perugia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Perugia 1509 · Pescara 1513

	Perugia	Draw	Pescara
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Perugia: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Perugia	Pescara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +3’	2.45	3.20	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Perugia 2–3–1 Pescara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/01/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	0-0 HT 0-0	Pescara
23/09/24 Italy Serie C Group B	Pescara	0-0 HT 0-0	Perugia
15/01/24 Italy Serie C Group B	Pescara	0-1 HT 0-0	Perugia
10/09/23 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	1-1 HT 0-0	Pescara
14/08/20 Italy Serie B Play-Offs	Perugia	2-1 HT 2-1	Pescara
10/08/20 Italy Serie B Play-Offs	Pescara	2-1 HT 0-1	Perugia

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	10	9	1	0	18	4	28
2	Ravenna	10	6	2	2	16	6	20
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	21	13	19
4	AC Reggiana	9	5	2	2	14	7	17
5	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	4	4	2	14	10	16
6	Livorno	10	4	4	2	15	14	16
7	Perugia	10	5	1	4	14	15	16
8	Pescara	10	4	3	3	13	12	15
9	Torres	10	4	3	3	11	12	15
10	US Latina Calcio	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
11	FC Vado	10	3	3	4	10	10	12
12	Atalanta U23	9	4	0	5	10	13	12
13	Campobasso	10	3	3	4	14	19	12
14	Forli	10	2	5	3	16	16	11
15	AS Ostia Mare	10	2	3	5	9	12	9
16	US Pianese	10	1	5	4	6	10	8
17	ASD Pineto Calcio	9	1	5	3	6	11	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	1	4	5	14	17	7
19	Gubbio	10	2	1	7	10	20	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	1	1	7	10	20	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Perugia	Pescara
FC Vado	0-2 L	1-0 W
Gubbio	3-1 W	1-1 D
Spezia	0-3 L	1-2 L
Ravenna	0-3 L	0-0 D
Vis Pesaro	2-2 D	2-0 W
AS Ostia Mare	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pescara (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Perugia

WDWLLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	5-1	3	6	W
11/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
27/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
20/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	9	8	L
16/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
13/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
06/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
30/08	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	8	3	W

Pescara

WLDLDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
12/10	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
03/10	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
27/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
20/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
12/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
06/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/08	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-3	3-6	4	4	L
22/08	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Perugia vs Pescara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Perugia win (37%). Probabilities: Perugia 37%, draw 28%, Pescara 35%.

How many goals are expected in Perugia vs Pescara?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Perugia 1.39 · Pescara 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Perugia vs Pescara?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.