Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 23/10, 20:30

Prediction: ASD Pineto Calcio vs Gubbio

Team pages: ASD Pineto Calcio · Gubbio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

ASD Pineto Calcio1.47

Gubbio0.81

1X2

52% 28% 20%

ASD Pineto Calcio Draw Gubbio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Pineto Calcio 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWDDLLDW

Gubbio 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLLLL

Head-to-head

ASD Pineto Calcio 2–4 Gubbio (6 last)

ASD Pineto Calcio1-2Gubbio
ASD Pineto Calcio2-1Gubbio
Gubbio2-0ASD Pineto Calcio
ASD Pineto Calcio1-0Gubbio
Gubbio2-1ASD Pineto Calcio
ASD Pineto Calcio1-2Gubbio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Pineto Calcio 1481 · Gubbio 1448

	ASD Pineto Calcio	Draw	Gubbio
Our model	52%	29%	19%
Market	52%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gubbio: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Pineto Calcio	Gubbio
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +6’	1.73	3.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Pineto Calcio 2–0–4 Gubbio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 Italy Serie C Cup	ASD Pineto Calcio	1-2 HT 0-1	Gubbio
03/05/26 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	ASD Pineto Calcio	2-1 HT 0-1	Gubbio
26/04/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Gubbio	2-0 HT 1-0	ASD Pineto Calcio
20/12/25 Italy Serie C Group B	ASD Pineto Calcio	1-0 HT 1-0	Gubbio
14/02/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Gubbio	2-1 HT 1-1	ASD Pineto Calcio
06/10/24 Italy Serie C Group B	ASD Pineto Calcio	1-2 HT 1-2	Gubbio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	10	9	1	0	18	4	28
2	Ravenna	10	6	2	2	16	6	20
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	21	13	19
4	AC Reggiana	9	5	2	2	14	7	17
5	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	4	4	2	14	10	16
6	Livorno	10	4	4	2	15	14	16
7	Perugia	10	5	1	4	14	15	16
8	Pescara	10	4	3	3	13	12	15
9	Torres	10	4	3	3	11	12	15
10	US Latina Calcio	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
11	FC Vado	10	3	3	4	10	10	12
12	Atalanta U23	9	4	0	5	10	13	12
13	Campobasso	10	3	3	4	14	19	12
14	Forli	10	2	5	3	16	16	11
15	AS Ostia Mare	10	2	3	5	9	12	9
16	US Pianese	10	1	5	4	6	10	8
17	ASD Pineto Calcio	9	1	5	3	6	11	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	1	4	5	14	17	7
19	Gubbio	10	2	1	7	10	20	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	1	1	7	10	20	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD Pineto Calcio	Gubbio
AC Reggiana	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	0-1 L	0-3 L
Campobasso	2-2 D	4-2 W
Perugia	1-2 L	1-3 L
US Latina Calcio	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Pineto Calcio (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Pineto Calcio

DDLWDDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
04/10	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	0-4	3	5	L
20/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-2	0	3	D
16/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
12/09	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
06/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
29/08	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	8	9	D
23/08	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Gubbio

LLWWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/10	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
03/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
27/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
20/09	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
16/09	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
12/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
05/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	4-2	6	6	W
30/08	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
22/08	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Pineto Calcio vs Gubbio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Pineto Calcio win (52%). Probabilities: ASD Pineto Calcio 52%, draw 28%, Gubbio 20%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Pineto Calcio vs Gubbio?

The model expects 2.28 goals (ASD Pineto Calcio 1.47 · Gubbio 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Pineto Calcio vs Gubbio?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.