Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 31/10, 17:30

Prediction: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Perugia

Team pages: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · Perugia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19371.38

Perugia1.27

1X2

38% 29% 33%

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Draw Perugia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLWDWL

Perugia 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWLWL

Head-to-head

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 0–1–2 Perugia (3 last)

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19371-2Perugia
Perugia0-0FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FC Guidonia Montecelio 19371-3Perugia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1486 · Perugia 1500

	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	Draw	Perugia
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Perugia: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	Perugia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 3.1	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +12’	2.35	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 0–1–2 Perugia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Italy Serie C Group B	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	1-2 HT 0-1	Perugia
22/08/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
05/10/23 Italy Serie C Cup	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	1-3 HT 1-2	Perugia

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	11	9	2	0	19	5	29
2	Ravenna	11	7	2	2	20	6	23
3	Grosseto	11	6	4	1	23	13	22
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	15	13	18
5	Torres	11	5	3	3	13	12	18
6	AC Reggiana	11	5	2	4	14	11	17
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	11	4	4	3	14	12	16
8	Livorno	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
9	Perugia	11	5	1	5	15	17	16
10	Campobasso	11	4	3	4	16	20	15
11	FC Vado	11	4	3	4	12	11	15
12	US Latina Calcio	11	3	5	3	11	11	14
13	ASD Pineto Calcio	11	3	5	3	9	11	14
14	Forli	11	2	6	3	16	16	12
15	Atalanta U23	10	4	0	6	11	15	12
16	Sambenedettese	11	2	4	5	16	18	10
17	AS Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	10	14	9
18	US Pianese	11	1	6	4	6	10	9
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	10	21	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	1	1	8	10	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	Perugia
Pescara	1-1 D	1-2 L
ASD Pineto Calcio	1-0 W	2-1 W
Vis Pesaro	1-2 L	2-2 D
AC Reggiana	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Perugia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

LWDDDLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
17/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
12/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
04/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
27/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
21/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
30/08	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	2	3	L

Perugia

DWLLLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
18/10	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	5-1	3	6	W
11/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
27/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
20/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	9	8	L
16/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
13/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
06/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
30/08	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-2	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Perugia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win (38%). Probabilities: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 38%, draw 29%, Perugia 33%.

How many goals are expected in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Perugia?

The model expects 2.65 goals (FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1.38 · Perugia 1.27), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Perugia?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.