Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 30/10, 20:30

Prediction: AC Reggiana vs Sambenedettese

Team pages: AC Reggiana · Sambenedettese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

AC Reggiana1.85

Sambenedettese0.78

1X2

62% 24% 14%

AC Reggiana Draw Sambenedettese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Reggiana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLWLL

Sambenedettese 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWDDW

Head-to-head

AC Reggiana 1–1–2 Sambenedettese (4 last)

Sambenedettese0-0AC Reggiana
AC Reggiana0-2Sambenedettese
Sambenedettese2-0AC Reggiana
AC Reggiana2-0Sambenedettese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Reggiana 1487 · Sambenedettese 1476

	AC Reggiana	Draw	Sambenedettese
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	62%	24%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sambenedettese: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Reggiana	Sambenedettese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.45

X3.70

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.45▼	Bet365 1.45
X	3.40 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	4.75 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +2’	1.61	3.40	4.75
13:52 +24’	1.45▼	3.70▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Reggiana 1–1–2 Sambenedettese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/18 Italy Serie C Group B	Sambenedettese	0-0 HT 0-0	AC Reggiana
30/09/17 Italy Serie C Group B	AC Reggiana	0-2 HT 0-2	Sambenedettese
26/03/17 Italy Serie C Group B	Sambenedettese	2-0 HT 1-0	AC Reggiana
07/11/16 Italy Serie C Group B	AC Reggiana	2-0 HT 1-0	Sambenedettese

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	11	9	2	0	19	5	29
2	Ravenna	11	7	2	2	20	6	23
3	Grosseto	11	6	4	1	23	13	22
4	Pescara	11	5	3	3	15	13	18
5	Torres	11	5	3	3	13	12	18
6	AC Reggiana	11	5	2	4	14	11	17
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	11	4	4	3	14	12	16
8	Livorno	11	4	4	3	16	16	16
9	Perugia	11	5	1	5	15	17	16
10	Campobasso	11	4	3	4	16	20	15
11	FC Vado	11	4	3	4	12	11	15
12	US Latina Calcio	11	3	5	3	11	11	14
13	ASD Pineto Calcio	11	3	5	3	9	11	14
14	Forli	11	2	6	3	16	16	12
15	Atalanta U23	10	4	0	6	11	15	12
16	Sambenedettese	11	2	4	5	16	18	10
17	AS Ostia Mare	11	2	3	6	10	14	9
18	US Pianese	11	1	6	4	6	10	9
19	Gubbio	11	2	1	8	10	21	7
20	Vis Pesaro	10	1	1	8	10	24	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Reggiana	Sambenedettese
Grosseto	0-2 L	3-1 W
ASD Pineto Calcio	0-2 L	1-2 L
Torres	2-0 W	0-1 L
Spezia	0-1 L	1-2 L
US Latina Calcio	1-0 W	1-1 D
FC Vado	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AC Reggiana (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Reggiana

WDWWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
20/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
10/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	0	7	L
04/10	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
20/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
16/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	3-0	4-1	4	5	W
12/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
06/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	3-1	3-1	6	6	W

Sambenedettese

LLLLDLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
17/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
11/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
03/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-1	3	9	W
26/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	11	4	L
21/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-3	10	6	L
12/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
06/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
29/08	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Reggiana vs Sambenedettese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Reggiana win (62%). Probabilities: AC Reggiana 62%, draw 24%, Sambenedettese 14%.

How many goals are expected in AC Reggiana vs Sambenedettese?

The model expects 2.63 goals (AC Reggiana 1.85 · Sambenedettese 0.78), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Reggiana vs Sambenedettese?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.