Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 10/10, 14:30
Prediction: Crotone vs Audace Cerignola
Team pages: Crotone · Audace Cerignola
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Crotone1.44
Audace Cerignola1.22
1X2
Crotone
Draw
Audace Cerignola
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Crotone
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Audace Cerignola
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crotone
2–2–2
Audace Cerignola
(6 last)
- Crotone1-1Audace Cerignola
- Crotone3-1Audace Cerignola
- Audace Cerignola2-0Crotone
- Crotone2-1Audace Cerignola
- Audace Cerignola1-1Crotone
- Audace Cerignola4-2Crotone
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crotone 1448 · Audace Cerignola 1497
| Crotone | Draw | Audace Cerignola | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Audace Cerignola (rating 1448 vs 1497).
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crotone | Audace Cerignola | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.1 | 2.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crotone 2–2–2 Audace Cerignola
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Italy Serie C Play-Offs | Crotone | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Audace Cerignola |
| 29/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Audace Cerignola |
| 21/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Crotone |
| 16/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Audace Cerignola |
| 03/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Crotone |
| 27/01/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 4-2 HT 0-2 | Crotone |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento Calcio | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| 5 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Catania | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| 7 | Salernitana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | AZ Picerno ASD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| 10 | Foggia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 11 | Cavese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| 12 | Scafatese | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Inter Milan U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 10 |
| 14 | AC Savoia 1908 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Casarano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
| 17 | Barletta | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crotone | Audace Cerignola |
|---|---|---|
| Foggia | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Casarano | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crotone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 15/09 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/08 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Audace Cerignola
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 19/09 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 15/09 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 19/04 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crotone win (40%). Probabilities: Crotone 40%, draw 29%, Audace Cerignola 30%.
How many goals are expected in Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Crotone 1.44 · Audace Cerignola 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Audace Cerignola?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.