Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 11/10, 14:30
Prediction: Foggia vs Potenza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Foggia1.46
Potenza1.28
1X2
Foggia
Draw
Potenza
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Foggia
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Potenza
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Foggia
1–2–3
Potenza
(6 last)
- Foggia0-1Potenza
- Potenza3-0Foggia
- Foggia3-4Potenza
- Potenza1-1Foggia
- Potenza0-3Foggia
- Foggia0-0Potenza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Foggia 1455 · Potenza 1573
| Foggia | Draw | Potenza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Potenza (rating 1455 vs 1573).
- H2H favours Potenza: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Foggia | Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.5 | 1.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Foggia 1–2–3 Potenza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Potenza |
| 02/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Foggia |
| 23/02/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 3-4 HT 2-2 | Potenza |
| 13/10/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Foggia |
| 13/04/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Foggia |
| 10/12/23 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Potenza |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Sorrento Calcio | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Bari | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Catania | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Salernitana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Monopoli | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | AZ Picerno ASD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 12 |
| 8 | Casertana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| 9 | Audace Cerignola | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| 10 | Foggia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| 11 | Cavese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| 12 | Scafatese | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 13 | Inter Milan U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 14 | Casarano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 15 | Team Altamura | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | AC Savoia 1908 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 17 | Barletta | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 7 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Foggia | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Cosenza | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Monopoli | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Salernitana | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Foggia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Foggia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 15/09 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 24/08 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Potenza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Bari Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Foggia vs Potenza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Foggia win (40%). Probabilities: Foggia 40%, draw 28%, Potenza 32%.
How many goals are expected in Foggia vs Potenza?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Foggia 1.46 · Potenza 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Foggia vs Potenza?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.