Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 25/10, 12:30
Prediction: Monopoli vs Audace Cerignola
Team pages: Monopoli · Audace Cerignola
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.22Total
Monopoli1.22
Audace Cerignola1
1X2
Monopoli
Draw
Audace Cerignola
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Monopoli
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Audace Cerignola
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monopoli
2–3–1
Audace Cerignola
(6 last)
- Audace Cerignola1-1Monopoli
- Audace Cerignola0-0Monopoli
- Monopoli2-0Audace Cerignola
- Audace Cerignola1-0Monopoli
- Monopoli1-1Audace Cerignola
- Audace Cerignola1-3Monopoli
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monopoli 1518 · Audace Cerignola 1527
| Monopoli | Draw | Audace Cerignola | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Monopoli: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monopoli | Audace Cerignola | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.2 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monopoli 2–3–1 Audace Cerignola
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/26 Italy Serie C Cup | Audace Cerignola | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Monopoli |
| 25/01/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Monopoli |
| 12/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Audace Cerignola |
| 30/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Monopoli |
| 18/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Audace Cerignola |
| 10/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Audace Cerignola | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Monopoli |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Bari | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sorrento Calcio | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Audace Cerignola | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Catania | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Casertana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 16 |
| 7 | Cavese | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 15 |
| 8 | Monopoli | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 9 | Scafatese | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 14 |
| 10 | Salernitana | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| 11 | Inter Milan U23 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | AZ Picerno ASD | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Barletta | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| 14 | Foggia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 15 | Casarano | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 11 |
| 17 | AC Savoia 1908 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 10 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 10 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 5 |
| 20 | Crotone | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monopoli | Audace Cerignola |
|---|---|---|
| Casertana | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| AC Savoia 1908 | 0-0 D | 4-0 W |
| Casarano | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Crotone | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Foggia | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Team Altamura | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Audace Cerignola (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monopoli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 15/09 | Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 12/09 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
Audace Cerignola
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
3-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 04/10 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 19/09 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 15/09 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monopoli vs Audace Cerignola?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monopoli win (41%). Probabilities: Monopoli 41%, draw 30%, Audace Cerignola 30%.
How many goals are expected in Monopoli vs Audace Cerignola?
The model expects 2.22 goals (Monopoli 1.22 · Audace Cerignola 1), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Monopoli vs Audace Cerignola?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.