Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 25/10, 15:00

Prediction: AZ Picerno ASD vs Salernitana

Team pages: AZ Picerno ASD · Salernitana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

AZ Picerno ASD1.24

Salernitana1.59

1X2

28% 28% 44%

AZ Picerno ASD Draw Salernitana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AZ Picerno ASD 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLWLLL

Salernitana 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWDWLWDD

Head-to-head

AZ Picerno ASD 0–1–3 Salernitana (4 last)

Salernitana2-1AZ Picerno ASD
AZ Picerno ASD1-2Salernitana
Salernitana1-0AZ Picerno ASD
Salernitana1-1AZ Picerno ASD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AZ Picerno ASD 1450 · Salernitana 1530

	AZ Picerno ASD	Draw	Salernitana
Our model	29%	27%	44%
Market	28%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salernitana (rating 1450 vs 1530).
H2H favours Salernitana: 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ Picerno ASD	Salernitana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	3.4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +9’	3.20	3.20	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ Picerno ASD 0–1–3 Salernitana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Salernitana	2-1 HT 0-0	AZ Picerno ASD
13/12/25 Italy Serie C Group C	AZ Picerno ASD	1-2 HT 1-0	Salernitana
23/07/23 Europe Friendlies	Salernitana	1-0 HT 0-0	AZ Picerno ASD
28/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Salernitana	1-1 HT 1-0	AZ Picerno ASD

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	10	8	1	1	26	13	25
2	Bari	10	6	2	2	13	6	20
3	Sorrento Calcio	10	6	1	3	14	10	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	5	2	3	18	9	17
5	Catania	10	5	1	4	18	12	16
6	Casertana	10	4	4	2	15	13	16
7	Cavese	10	4	3	3	20	17	15
8	Monopoli	10	4	3	3	11	9	15
9	Scafatese	9	3	5	1	15	13	14
10	Salernitana	10	3	5	2	14	12	14
11	Inter Milan U23	9	4	1	4	18	17	13
12	AZ Picerno ASD	10	4	0	6	17	18	12
13	Barletta	10	2	5	3	13	15	11
14	Foggia	10	3	2	5	10	13	11
15	Casarano	10	3	2	5	12	18	11
16	Team Altamura	10	3	2	5	7	14	11
17	AC Savoia 1908	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
18	Giugliano	10	3	1	6	15	23	10
19	Cosenza	10	1	2	7	8	22	5
20	Crotone	10	1	4	5	10	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ Picerno ASD	Salernitana
Barletta	0-1 L	1-1 D
Potenza	2-4 L	4-2 W
Sorrento Calcio	0-1 L	1-2 L
Scafatese	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Salernitana (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ Picerno ASD

WWWLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/10	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/10	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
26/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-1	3	8	W
19/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
15/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-3	2-4	4	3	L
12/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
07/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-1	7	6	W
28/08	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
23/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	3-2	6	5	W

Salernitana

LDDWDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	8	4	D
11/10	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
04/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-1	9	5	W
26/09	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	1-2	11	6	L
19/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	12	4	W
15/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
11/09	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	3-1	4-2	3	5	W
06/09	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	7	8	D
29/08	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
24/08	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ Picerno ASD vs Salernitana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Salernitana win (44%). Probabilities: AZ Picerno ASD 28%, draw 28%, Salernitana 44%.

How many goals are expected in AZ Picerno ASD vs Salernitana?

The model expects 2.83 goals (AZ Picerno ASD 1.24 · Salernitana 1.59), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ Picerno ASD vs Salernitana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.