Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 04/10, 03:30

Prediction: AD Grecia vs PFA Santa Cruz

Team pages: AD Grecia · PFA Santa Cruz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

AD Grecia1.98

PFA Santa Cruz1

1X2

59% 23% 18%

AD Grecia Draw PFA Santa Cruz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Grecia 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWDDL

PFA Santa Cruz 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLWLL

Head-to-head

AD Grecia 2–3 PFA Santa Cruz (5 last)

PFA Santa Cruz1-2AD Grecia
PFA Santa Cruz1-0AD Grecia
AD Grecia1-0PFA Santa Cruz
AD Grecia2-3PFA Santa Cruz
PFA Santa Cruz2-1AD Grecia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Grecia 1503 · PFA Santa Cruz 1438

	AD Grecia	Draw	PFA Santa Cruz
Our model	59%	23%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Grecia (rating 1503 vs 1438).
H2H favours PFA Santa Cruz: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Grecia	PFA Santa Cruz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	5.3 / 1.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.65 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:50 +7’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +75’	1.61	3.61	4.38
00:02 +67’	1.65▲	3.61	4.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Grecia 2–0–3 PFA Santa Cruz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	1-2	AD Grecia
08/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	1-0 HT 0-0	AD Grecia
17/01/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Grecia	1-0 HT 0-0	PFA Santa Cruz
09/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Grecia	2-3 HT 0-2	PFA Santa Cruz
24/08/25 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	2-1 HT 0-1	AD Grecia

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADR Jicaral	8	5	3	0	12	4	18
2	Quepos Cambute FC	8	5	1	2	13	6	16
3	AD Grecia	7	3	2	2	8	6	11
4	AD Sarchi	8	3	2	3	8	11	11
5	AD Rosario	7	3	1	3	10	10	10
6	PFA Santa Cruz	8	2	0	6	11	18	6
7	AD Cofutpa	8	1	1	6	7	14	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Grecia	PFA Santa Cruz
Quepos Cambute FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
ADR Jicaral	1-1 D	1-4 L
AD Cofutpa	0-0 D	1-3 L
AD Sarchi	1-0 W	4-0 W
AD Rosario	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: AD Grecia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Grecia

LWDWWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
13/09	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/09	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
30/08	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/08	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-3	2	1	L
16/08	PFA Santa Cruz Costa Rica Segunda	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
12/04	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-1	9	7	D
07/04	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/03	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-3	1	5	L

PFA Santa Cruz

DLLWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
13/09	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	–	4-0	–	–	W
30/08	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
23/08	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	1-4	2	4	L
16/08	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	–	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	–	3-1	–	–	W
02/08	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
25/04	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-4	2	10	L
18/04	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Grecia vs PFA Santa Cruz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Grecia win (59%). Probabilities: AD Grecia 59%, draw 23%, PFA Santa Cruz 18%.

How many goals are expected in AD Grecia vs PFA Santa Cruz?

The model expects 2.98 goals (AD Grecia 1.98 · PFA Santa Cruz 1), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Grecia vs PFA Santa Cruz?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.