Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 10/10, 04:00

Prediction: AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC

Team pages: AD Carmelita · Guadalupe FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

AD Carmelita1.66

Guadalupe FC1.5

1X2

40% 26% 33%

AD Carmelita Draw Guadalupe FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Carmelita 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLLDWWW

Guadalupe FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLLDW

Head-to-head

AD Carmelita 3–1–2 Guadalupe FC (6 last)

Guadalupe FC0-1AD Carmelita
Guadalupe FC1-1AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita4-1Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC2-1AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita3-0Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC2-0AD Carmelita

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Carmelita 1524 · Guadalupe FC 1460

	AD Carmelita	Draw	Guadalupe FC
Our model	41%	26%	34%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Carmelita (rating 1524 vs 1460).
H2H favours AD Carmelita: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Carmelita	Guadalupe FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	2.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.36 ★
X	3.50 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.78

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +12’	1.75	3.50	3.70
00:49 +6’	2.25▲	3.30▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +310’	1.89	3.24	3.47
00:21 +34’	2.42▲	3.03▼	2.63▼
02:04 +50’	2.36▼	3.05▲	2.78▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Carmelita 3–1–2 Guadalupe FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/08/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Guadalupe FC	0-1 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
27/03/19 Costa Rica Primera Division	Guadalupe FC	1-1 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
03/02/19 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD Carmelita	4-1 HT 3-0	Guadalupe FC
04/11/18 Costa Rica Primera Division	Guadalupe FC	2-1 HT 1-0	AD Carmelita
09/09/18 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD Carmelita	3-0 HT 0-0	Guadalupe FC
24/03/18 Costa Rica Primera Division	Guadalupe FC	2-0 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	9	5	4	0	17	11	19
2	Santa Ana	9	6	0	3	13	10	18
3	AD Carmelita	10	4	3	3	19	11	15
4	FC Aserri	10	4	2	4	10	11	14
5	Cariari Pococi	8	2	4	2	9	9	10
6	FC Moravia	10	3	1	6	12	13	10
7	Guadalupe FC	10	2	3	5	13	19	9
8	CS Uruguay de Coronado	10	2	3	5	9	18	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Carmelita	Guadalupe FC
FC Moravia	3-0 W	0-3 L
Santa Ana	1-0 W	1-2 L
CS Uruguay de Coronado	6-0 W	0-1 L
Cariari Pococi	1-1 D	3-3 D
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	1-2 L	2-2 D
FC Aserri	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AD Carmelita (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Carmelita

DLDWLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
26/09	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
19/09	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	2-0	6-0	5	6	W
14/09	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
07/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	9	L
28/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
25/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
14/08	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/08	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-3	2	6	L
02/08	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-2	4	5	D

Guadalupe FC

WDLLDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	3-2	8	4	W
27/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	2-2	11	5	D
19/09	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	0-3	10	5	L
13/09	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	7	5	L
06/09	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
29/08	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	3-3	3	4	D
25/08	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
15/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
11/08	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-2	4	2	D
02/08	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Carmelita win (40%). Probabilities: AD Carmelita 40%, draw 26%, Guadalupe FC 33%.

How many goals are expected in AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?

The model expects 3.16 goals (AD Carmelita 1.66 · Guadalupe FC 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.