Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 11/10, 21:00

Prediction: PFA Santa Cruz vs ADR Jicaral

Team pages: PFA Santa Cruz · ADR Jicaral

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

PFA Santa Cruz0.79

ADR Jicaral1.76

1X2

16% 24% 60%

PFA Santa Cruz Draw ADR Jicaral

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

PFA Santa Cruz 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLLL

ADR Jicaral 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWDDWW

Head-to-head

PFA Santa Cruz 0–4–2 ADR Jicaral (6 last)

ADR Jicaral4-1PFA Santa Cruz
ADR Jicaral0-0PFA Santa Cruz
PFA Santa Cruz1-1ADR Jicaral
PFA Santa Cruz2-2ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral2-0PFA Santa Cruz
PFA Santa Cruz1-1ADR Jicaral

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PFA Santa Cruz 1426 · ADR Jicaral 1584

	PFA Santa Cruz	Draw	ADR Jicaral
Our model	15%	25%	59%
Market	16%	23%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ADR Jicaral (rating 1426 vs 1584).
H2H favours ADR Jicaral: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PFA Santa Cruz	ADR Jicaral
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	1.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/17/83%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.7	4.6 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 1	5.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.90

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
X	3.70 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.02 ★
2	1.61 → 1.50▼	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:29 +11’	4.50	3.70	1.61
14:43 +5’	5.50▲	3.90▲	1.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:13 +7’	4.71	3.67	1.56
11:39 +70’	5.27▲	4.02▲	1.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PFA Santa Cruz 0–4–2 ADR Jicaral

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Costa Rica Segunda	ADR Jicaral	4-1 HT 3-0	PFA Santa Cruz
01/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	ADR Jicaral	0-0 HT 0-0	PFA Santa Cruz
29/01/26 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	1-1	ADR Jicaral
05/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	2-2	ADR Jicaral
17/08/25 Costa Rica Segunda	ADR Jicaral	2-0 HT 0-0	PFA Santa Cruz
02/03/24 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	1-1 HT 1-1	ADR Jicaral

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADR Jicaral	9	6	3	0	15	5	21
2	Quepos Cambute FC	9	5	1	3	13	7	16
3	AD Grecia	8	4	2	2	9	6	14
4	AD Rosario	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
5	AD Sarchi	8	3	2	3	8	11	11
6	PFA Santa Cruz	9	2	0	7	11	19	6
7	AD Cofutpa	9	1	1	7	8	17	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PFA Santa Cruz	ADR Jicaral
AD Grecia	0-1 L	1-1 D
AD Cofutpa	1-3 L	3-1 W
Quepos Cambute FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
AD Sarchi	4-0 W	1-0 W
AD Rosario	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ADR Jicaral (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PFA Santa Cruz

LLWLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
27/09	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
13/09	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	–	4-0	–	–	W
30/08	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
23/08	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	1-4	2	4	L
16/08	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	–	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	–	3-1	–	–	W
02/08	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
25/04	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-4	2	10	L

ADR Jicaral

DWDWWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	2-0	3-1	11	6	W
27/09	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
20/09	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-1	10	9	D
13/09	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
06/09	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-0	7	8	W
23/08	PFA Santa Cruz Costa Rica Segunda	3-0	4-1	10	4	W
17/08	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	11	7	W
09/08	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
31/07	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
24/05	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	12	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PFA Santa Cruz vs ADR Jicaral?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ADR Jicaral win (60%). Probabilities: PFA Santa Cruz 16%, draw 24%, ADR Jicaral 60%.

How many goals are expected in PFA Santa Cruz vs ADR Jicaral?

The model expects 2.55 goals (PFA Santa Cruz 0.79 · ADR Jicaral 1.76), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PFA Santa Cruz vs ADR Jicaral?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.