Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 18/10, 19:00
Prediction: FC Aserri vs AD Carmelita
Team pages: FC Aserri · AD Carmelita
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
FC Aserri1.28
AD Carmelita1.18
1X2
FC Aserri
Draw
AD Carmelita
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Aserri
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
AD Carmelita
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Aserri
3–3–0
AD Carmelita
(6 last)
- AD Carmelita1-2FC Aserri
- FC Aserri0-0AD Carmelita
- AD Carmelita2-2FC Aserri
- AD Carmelita1-1FC Aserri
- FC Aserri1-0AD Carmelita
- FC Aserri2-1AD Carmelita
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Aserri 1516 · AD Carmelita 1501
| FC Aserri | Draw | AD Carmelita | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Aserri: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Aserri | AD Carmelita | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.5 | 5.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Aserri 3–3–0 AD Carmelita
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 Costa Rica Segunda | AD Carmelita | 1-2 HT 1-0 | FC Aserri |
| 31/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda | FC Aserri | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AD Carmelita |
| 15/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda | AD Carmelita | 2-2 HT 0-1 | FC Aserri |
| 02/11/25 Costa Rica Segunda | AD Carmelita | 1-1 HT 1-1 | FC Aserri |
| 19/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda | FC Aserri | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AD Carmelita |
| 26/04/22 Costa Rica Segunda | FC Aserri | 2-1 HT 2-1 | AD Carmelita |
Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Ana | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Cariari Pococi | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | AD Carmelita | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Aserri | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| 6 | Guadalupe FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 15 |
| 7 | FC Moravia | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| 8 | CS Uruguay de Coronado | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Aserri | AD Carmelita |
|---|---|---|
| Pitbulls Santa Barbara | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Guadalupe FC | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| FC Moravia | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Santa Ana | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| CS Uruguay de Coronado | 1-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Cariari Pococi | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Aserri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 04/10 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 28/08 | AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
AD Carmelita
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 02/10 | FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 26/09 | Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda |
2-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 28/08 | FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Aserri vs AD Carmelita?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Aserri win (38%). Probabilities: FC Aserri 38%, draw 28%, AD Carmelita 33%.
How many goals are expected in FC Aserri vs AD Carmelita?
The model expects 2.45 goals (FC Aserri 1.28 · AD Carmelita 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Aserri vs AD Carmelita?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.