Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 27/10, 02:00

Prediction: Pitbulls Santa Barbara vs AD Carmelita

Team pages: Pitbulls Santa Barbara · AD Carmelita

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Pitbulls Santa Barbara1.22

AD Carmelita1.28

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara Draw AD Carmelita

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Pitbulls Santa Barbara 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLDDDL

AD Carmelita 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWWWLD

Head-to-head

Pitbulls Santa Barbara 2–1–2 AD Carmelita (5 last)

AD Carmelita1-2Pitbulls Santa Barbara
AD Carmelita1-0Pitbulls Santa Barbara
Pitbulls Santa Barbara0-0AD Carmelita
Pitbulls Santa Barbara2-0AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita2-1Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pitbulls Santa Barbara 1512 · AD Carmelita 1517

	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	Draw	AD Carmelita
Our model	34%	30%	37%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	AD Carmelita
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	5.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 01:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.60▲	Bet365 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.51 ★
2	3.10 → 2.40▼	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 13.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:01 +2’	2.10	3.20	3.10
08:58 +6’	2.15▲	3.20	3.00▼
13:57 +7’	2.10▼	3.20	3.00
15:03 +2’	2.20▲	3.20	2.90▼
16:00 +5’	2.25▲	3.20	2.80▼
17:58 +5’	2.05▼	3.25▲	3.20▲
01:00 +3’	2.60▲	3.20▼	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +3’	2.32	3.09	2.71
17:52 +11’	2.05▼	3.08▼	3.19▲
22:58 +4’	2.05	3.10▲	3.19
00:00 +1’	2.06▲	3.14▲	3.23▲
01:00 +4’	2.58▲	3.51▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pitbulls Santa Barbara 2–1–2 AD Carmelita

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-2 HT 0-1	Pitbulls Santa Barbara
16/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-0 HT 1-0	Pitbulls Santa Barbara
02/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
19/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	2-0 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
04/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	2-1 HT 0-0	Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santa Ana	13	9	0	4	22	14	27
2	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	12	5	5	2	21	17	20
3	Cariari Pococi	13	5	4	4	14	13	19
4	Guadalupe FC	13	5	3	5	18	20	18
5	AD Carmelita	12	4	4	4	20	14	16
6	FC Moravia	13	5	1	7	17	15	16
7	FC Aserri	13	4	4	5	14	16	16
8	CS Uruguay de Coronado	13	2	3	8	10	27	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	AD Carmelita
Santa Ana	1-2 L	1-0 W
FC Aserri	2-2 D	1-1 D
CS Uruguay de Coronado	2-2 D	6-0 W
Guadalupe FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
Cariari Pococi	1-2 L	1-1 D
FC Moravia	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AD Carmelita (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara

DWWWWLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
13/10	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-2	5	7	D
03/10	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	6	8	D
27/09	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
24/09	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
22/09	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
15/09	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
07/09	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
01/09	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
22/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

AD Carmelita

DWLLDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
10/10	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	0-2	4	10	L
02/10	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
26/09	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
19/09	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	2-0	6-0	5	6	W
14/09	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
07/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	9	L
28/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
25/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
14/08	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pitbulls Santa Barbara vs AD Carmelita?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AD Carmelita win (37%). Probabilities: Pitbulls Santa Barbara 34%, draw 29%, AD Carmelita 37%.

How many goals are expected in Pitbulls Santa Barbara vs AD Carmelita?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Pitbulls Santa Barbara 1.22 · AD Carmelita 1.28), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pitbulls Santa Barbara vs AD Carmelita?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.