Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Aland United (W) vs Ilves (W)

Team pages: Aland United (W) · Ilves (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Aland United (W)2.81

Ilves (W)1.3

1X2

68% 18% 14%

Aland United (W) Draw Ilves (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aland United (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWWWW

Ilves (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLWDW

Head-to-head

Aland United (W) 5–1 Ilves (W) (6 last)

Ilves (W)0-2Aland United (W)
Aland United (W)4-1Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)2-5Aland United (W)
Ilves (W)0-1Aland United (W)
Aland United (W)1-3Ilves (W)
Aland United (W)3-2Ilves (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aland United (W) 1565 · Ilves (W) 1522

	Aland United (W)	Draw	Ilves (W)
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aland United (W) (rating 1565 vs 1522).
H2H favours Aland United (W): 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aland United (W)	Ilves (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	2.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	1.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:33 +7’	1.33	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aland United (W) 5–0–1 Ilves (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	Aland United (W)
03/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	4-1 HT 3-1	Ilves (W)
20/08/25 Finland Cup Women	Ilves (W)	2-5 HT 1-2	Aland United (W)
07/07/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Aland United (W)
20/04/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	1-3 HT 0-1	Ilves (W)
01/08/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	3-2 HT 2-0	Ilves (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	14	13	0	1	38	9	39
2	Aland United (W)	14	9	1	4	41	19	28
3	KuPS (W)	14	9	1	4	31	21	28
4	HPS (W)	14	7	3	4	19	15	24
5	Ilves (W)	14	7	1	6	27	26	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	14	4	1	9	21	32	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aland United (W)	Ilves (W)
VIFK (W)	6-1 W	3-0 W
KuPS (W)	3-1 W	4-2 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	4-1 W	2-0 W
HPS (W)	0-0 D	2-1 W
HJK (W)	2-3 L	1-3 L
IF Gnistan (W)	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aland United (W)

LWWLDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	6-1	9	0	W
18/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
12/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	4-0	4-1	5	4	W
04/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
01/07	KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women	1-2	1-2	2	5	L
28/06	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
12/06	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
31/05	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	4-1	3	4	W
21/05	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
17/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	1-6	–	–	L

Ilves (W)

LWWWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
18/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-2	4	0	D
12/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-2	3	4	W
04/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
27/06	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	4	1	L
14/06	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
31/05	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/05	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
17/05	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	3-2	2	1	W
09/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aland United (W) vs Ilves (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aland United (W) win (68%). Probabilities: Aland United (W) 68%, draw 18%, Ilves (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Aland United (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Aland United (W) 2.81 · Ilves (W) 1.3), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aland United (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.