Prediction: Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)
Team pages: Ilves (W) · IF Gnistan (W)
- Ilves (W)2-2IF Gnistan (W)
- IF Gnistan (W)2-3Ilves (W)
| Ilves (W) | Draw | IF Gnistan (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilves (W) (rating 1535 vs 1442).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ilves (W) | IF Gnistan (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilves (W) 1–1–0 IF Gnistan (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Ilves (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | IF Gnistan (W) |
| 17/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | IF Gnistan (W) | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Ilves (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 15 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 10 | 42 |
| 2 | Aland United (W) | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | KuPS (W) | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS (W) | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 27 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ilves (W) | IF Gnistan (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Aland United (W) | 0-3 L | 1-4 L |
| HPS (W) | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| KuPS (W) | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| HJK (W) | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| VIFK (W) | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Ilves (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilves (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 12/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
IF Gnistan (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 12/07 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/05 | HIFK (W) Finland Cup Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ilves (W) win (56%). Probabilities: Ilves (W) 56%, draw 22%, IF Gnistan (W) 22%.
How many goals are expected in Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Ilves (W) 2.08 · IF Gnistan (W) 1.26), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ilves (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.