Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: KuPS (W) vs HPS (W)

Team pages: KuPS (W) · HPS (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

KuPS (W)1.71

HPS (W)1.18

1X2

49% 25% 26%

KuPS (W) Draw HPS (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KuPS (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWWW

HPS (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLWLDWW

Head-to-head

KuPS (W) 2–1–3 HPS (W) (6 last)

HPS (W)3-2KuPS (W)
HPS (W)3-2KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)0-0HPS (W)
HPS (W)2-1KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)5-1HPS (W)
HPS (W)2-3KuPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KuPS (W) 1526 · HPS (W) 1544

	KuPS (W)	Draw	HPS (W)
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HPS (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KuPS (W)	HPS (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.80

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:58 +20’	1.80	3.80	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS (W) 2–1–3 HPS (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	3-2 HT 0-1	KuPS (W)
29/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	3-2 HT 1-2	KuPS (W)
28/03/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
03/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	KuPS (W)
06/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	5-1 HT 2-0	HPS (W)
09/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	2-3 HT 2-1	KuPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	19	16	1	2	51	17	49
2	KuPS (W)	19	13	1	5	40	25	40
3	Aland United (W)	19	12	1	6	50	26	37
4	HPS (W)	19	10	4	5	30	23	34
5	Ilves (W)	19	7	1	11	31	39	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	19	5	1	13	27	44	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KuPS (W)	HPS (W)
Aland United (W)	2-0 W	1-2 L
IF Gnistan (W)	2-0 W	3-1 W
Ilves (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
HJK (W)	1-0 W	3-3 D
VIFK (W)	5-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KuPS (W)

WLLLWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
29/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
22/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
17/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
08/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
25/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
18/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	5	6	L
12/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-4	8	4	L
04/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
27/06	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	5-1	9	2	W

HPS (W)

DWDLLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	11	2	W
29/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
21/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
16/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
08/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	4	5	W
25/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
19/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
12/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
04/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
28/06	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KuPS (W) vs HPS (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS (W) win (49%). Probabilities: KuPS (W) 49%, draw 25%, HPS (W) 26%.

How many goals are expected in KuPS (W) vs HPS (W)?

The model expects 2.88 goals (KuPS (W) 1.71 · HPS (W) 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KuPS (W) vs HPS (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.