Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 19/09, 17:00

Prediction: HJK (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)

Team pages: HJK (W) · IF Gnistan (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

HJK (W)2.91

IF Gnistan (W)0.91

1X2

84% 10% 6%

HJK (W) Draw IF Gnistan (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

HJK (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLDWW

IF Gnistan (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLWLLL

Head-to-head

HJK (W) 3–0 IF Gnistan (W) (3 last)

IF Gnistan (W)1-3HJK (W)
IF Gnistan (W)0-1HJK (W)
HJK (W)5-0IF Gnistan (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HJK (W) 1606 · IF Gnistan (W) 1448

	HJK (W)	Draw	IF Gnistan (W)
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	89%	7%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK (W) (rating 1606 vs 1448).
H2H favours HJK (W): 3-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HJK (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.1	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.05

X13.00

223.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.80

2 (+3)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.05 → 1.05	Bet365 1.05
X	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
2	23.00 → 23.00	Bet365 23.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:30 +12’	1.05	13.00	23.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK (W) 3–0–0 IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	1-3 HT 0-3	HJK (W)
12/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	HJK (W)
09/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HJK (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	IF Gnistan (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	19	16	1	2	51	17	49
2	KuPS (W)	19	13	1	5	40	25	40
3	Aland United (W)	19	12	1	6	50	26	37
4	HPS (W)	19	10	4	5	30	23	34
5	Ilves (W)	19	7	1	11	31	39	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	19	5	1	13	27	44	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HJK (W)	IF Gnistan (W)
Ilves (W)	5-2 W	2-1 W
Aland United (W)	2-1 W	2-3 L
HPS (W)	3-3 D	1-3 L
KuPS (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HJK (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HJK (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-1	5-2	10	1	W
29/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-1	9	0	W
21/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	3-3	2	3	D
17/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
12/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	3-1	3	2	W
25/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	8	1	W
19/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-0	5	1	W
12/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	13	3	W
04/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
27/06	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	3-1	3	1	W

IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
29/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
23/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-3	6	2	L
15/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
25/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
18/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
12/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
05/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
27/06	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	3-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HJK (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK (W) win (84%). Probabilities: HJK (W) 84%, draw 10%, IF Gnistan (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in HJK (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model expects 3.82 goals (HJK (W) 2.91 · IF Gnistan (W) 0.91), with a 57% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HJK (W) vs IF Gnistan (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.